close icon

GBPAUD Plunging Like There is No Tomorrow

It has been a little over a month since GBPAUD reached 1.7650 on May 10th. The day before, May 9th, we published “GBPAUD About to Change Direction”, sharing our Elliott Wave-based opinion, that instead of joining the bulls above 1.7600, traders should stay aside and get ready for a major bearish reversal. Here is the chart that motivated the negative outlook.
gbpaud elliott wave chart analysis
There were two reasons for pessimism. First, the 4-hour chart of GBPAUD was showing a clear five-wave impulse to the north. According to the theory, every impulse is followed by a reversal. And second, the relative strength index allowed us to see the typical bearish divergence between waves 3 and 5, which meant the bulls were running out of steam. These two combined, were more than enough to convince us the Pound’s uptrend against the Australian dollar was not as strong as it appeared. A month later, we now know it was not.
gbpaud elliott wave analysis
The pair plunged to as low as 1.6728 earlier today, representing a 922-pip selloff from its May high. The decline consists of only three waves and under normal circumstances, the uptrend should have been expected to resume. However, the big picture outlook shows the impulsive rally to 1.7650 is actually part of a larger correction within an even larger downtrend. That is why instead of “buying the dip”, we believe more weakness should follow, as long as the top of wave 2 at 1.7491 is intact. Unless the pair returns to break this invalidation level, GBPAUD would remain under heavy pressure.



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Disappointing Start to 2021

Overall, 2020 was a good year for EURUSD bulls. Despite the March crash during the coronavirus-related volatility, the pair ended the year up almost 9%. With more stimulus already in the pipeline at the start of 2021, it made sense to expect further devaluation of the dollar against the Euro. Alas, common sense doesn’t always…

Read More »

USDJPY Gains 450 Pips and Counting in Two Months

2020 wasn’t a good year for USDJPY bulls. Starting from 108.63 in January, the pair closed at 103.32 on December 31st, down 4.9% in twelve months. But what the dollar lost against the yen in the entire 2020 it is now close to recouping in less than three months. USDJPY is approaching 108.50 as of…

Read More »

USDTRY Drop Accelerates as Elliott Wave Predicted

The Turkish Lira hit its highest level against the U.S. dollar in six months. The country economic and legal reforms announced last year coupled with tighter monetary policy appear to be giving the desired effect. USDTRY is down 19.3% from its November 2020 high after being in an uptrend since mid-2008. Most analyst, however, are…

Read More »

EURUSD Surges 570 Pips After Fibonacci Encounter

EURUSD is trading at levels last seen in April 2018, when it was on its way down to 1.0636 by March 2020. The pair is now approaching 1.2200, up 14.5% since the COVID-19 selloff nine months ago. But trends don’t move in a straight line. Two months ago, we showed you how Elliott Wave analysis…

Read More »

USDTRY Heads South After Central Bank Decision

Turkey finally took a decisive step towards taming the double-digit inflation, which has been destroying the Lira’s value for years. The country’s central bank lifted the benchmark interest rate to 15%, up 475 basis points from its previous standing. USDTRY fell as low as 7.5031 earlier today, on track for a second consecutive week of…

Read More »

GBPNZD Can Slide to Sub-1.9000 In Coming Weeks

What will EURUSD, USDJPY and USDCAD bring next week? That is the subject of discussion in our next premium analyses due out on Sunday! GBPNZD exceeded 2.0270 in mid-August, but the bulls could not keep the positive momentum. A month later, the pair fell to 1.9055, losing 6% in the process. And just when it…

Read More »

Ahead of EURUSD ‘s 280-pip Drop in September

EURUSD had been on a tear since mid-March when it bottomed out at 1.0636. Nearly six months later, on the first day of September, the pair exceeded the 1.2000 mark. The bulls seemed firmly in control and the Fed’s money printing suggested further losses ahead for the dollar. However, years of experience had taught us…

Read More »

More analyses