Over a month ago, on November 8th, we published an article demonstrating the Elliott Wave principle‘s ability to predict relatively large moves in the S&P 500. As the move in question progressed we decided to take a closer look into its structure to see what is left of it. The chart below was part of…
Nikkei 225 Can Lose 30% in Next Corrective Wave
The Japanese Nikkei 225 reached a multi-year high of 24 448 in October 2018. The last time the index traded this high was 27 years ago, in 1991, in the aftermath of the Japanese asset bubble. However, the bulls couldn’t maintain their momentum last year, which opened the door for a decline to 18 949…
S&P 500: Triangle Pattern Leads to New Record High
The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs on the back of better-than-feared earnings season and improved US-China trade prospects. The index closed at 3085 Thursday, bringing its 2019 tally to the impressive 23.1%. But was there a way to predict this move instead of just explaining it after the fact? To paraphrase Warren Buffett, the…
Insurance ETF Poised for an Elliott Wave Correction
The SPDR Insurance ETF reached a new all-time high in September, helped by a solid job market, increasing wages and rising consumer confidence. The price is up 630% since the Financial Crisis low at $4.77 in March 2009. The question is, can investors trust the uptrend to continue? Regardless of what pundits say, we don’t…
Dow Jones Sends a Warning Investors Can’t Ignore
The price movements of financial instruments form repetitive patterns, called Elliott waves. Experienced analysts try to recognize those patterns in order to prepare for the next market move. Sometimes, a pattern can indicate not only one, but the next two consecutive moves. The triangle pattern, for instance, is known to precede the last wave of…
DAX 30 Adds to Global Recession Fears
The German DAX 30 index has been declining since early July when it reached 12 656. Last week’s news that the German economy shrank by 0.1% in the second quarter only added to global recession fears. The benchmark index of Europe’s largest economy fell to 11 266 on August 15th. Are investors’ concerns warranted? Or…
Dare to Guess the Best Stock Market Index of 2019?
The first half of 2019 saw stock market indices around the globe rebound sharply. In the U.S., NASDAQ, DJIA and the S&P 500 are up 22.7%, 14.8% and 18.9% since the start of the year, respectively. In Europe, the German DAX and France’s CAC 40 both climbed 17.8%, UK’s FTSE 100 surged by 12% and…
Is the Dow Jones Transports Signaling a Recession?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average usually gets the most attention, but it is the Dow Jones Transports that often gives the early signs of trouble. Transport and delivery companies are the first to find out when there is a slowdown in global trade. And in some cases, a slowdown evolves into a full-blown recession. Despite…
DXY Bulls Should Worry as Bearish Evidence Abounds
The bulls have been in control of DXY during most of 2018 and gradually conquered more land in the first months of 2019, as well. The USD index recovered from its February 2018 low of 88.25 to as high as 98.33 last month. The bulls can really be proud with the total gain of over…
NASDAQ Bulls’ Resiliency has its Limitations
The NASDAQ 100 index closed at a new all-time high of 7826 last week, powered by strong Q1 earnings reports by Amazon and Microsoft, among others. The index is up by 650% from its 2009 low and by 884% since the bottom of the dot-com crash in October 2002. Looking at than phenomenal growth, one…
Nifty 50 to Fall Below 10 000 Level Again?
It has been almost five months since our last update on the Indian Nifty 50 index. On September 25th, the benchmark was trading around 11 000, following a pullback from the all-time high of 11 760. Still, the Elliott Wave analysis below suggested it was too early to buy the dip. The daily chart of…
A Special Letter about the State of the Stock Market
Dear Fellow Elliotticians Most major stock markets have been in a bull market for almost a decade. Unfortunately, after last week’s selloff it is now evident that this bull market is over. The S&P 500 is down 17.8% from its all-time high reached three months ago, despite a still strong economy and relatively low interest…
SPX Was Recovering… And Then it Wasn’t
The S&P 500 fell to an intraday low of 2583 yesterday, bringing its total decline to 12.1% from the top at 2941 in September. In Wall Street’s dictionary, a pullback of more than 10% is officially a correction and many are already worried about the big bear market ahead. On the other hand, it was…
S&P 500 Rallying Sharply, but Not Unexpectedly
S&P 500 bulls had a terrible October. The index was down 11% at one point, but managed to minimize the damage and finished the month down 7.3%. November, on the other hand, is looking a lot better, following a recovery of almost 100 points in the first seven days. President Trump’s reported request for a…
DJ New Zealand Index Falling Off a Cliff
October brought a real bloodbath to stock markets around the world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 just turned negative for the year and equities in Japan, China and Germany are also falling in sympathy. While leading indices are plunging it’s no wonder that other countries’ benchmarks are suffering as well. The…
