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"INSTINCT"

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This book is not about trading. It is about something much more important. The dark side of the Elliott Wave principle...

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Bovespa Investors in for a Rough 2017

Prepare for more weakness in the Brazilian stock market Brazil’s investors finally took a breath last year. After several years of slow, but steady decline, the country’s benchmark Bovespa index rose from as low as 37 046 in January to as high as 65 291 in October. So, basically, 2016 has been a great year. […]

Southwest Ready for a Hard Landing?

In June, 2016, Southwest Airlines was the subject of an educational article, titled ““Elliott Wave: The Devil Is In the Details”, where we presented three different scenarios for the stock’s future, in order to demonstrate that analysts should learn to look at one chart from different perspectives and keep all of them in mind. At […]

Bank of America and the So-Called Trump Rally

Bank of America stock proves that you cannot rely on politics for your investments Our previous article on the subject, titled “Bank of America: A Good Long-Term Bet?” was published on August 24th, 2016. Two and a half months before Donald Trump’s election for president, while the stock was trading near $15.30, the Elliott Wave Principle […]

Wells Fargo to Lose 30% from Now On?

Eight years and one fake accounts fiasco later, Wells Fargo’s uptrend is approaching its end The last time we wrote about Wells Fargo was in late-January, 2016. Fourteen months ago, the stock was trading below $49 a share, after a decline from $58.74. It was a $10-drop, which for the bank’s investors meant a 17% […]

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4 Pairs Before and After the Fed Rate Hike

Predicting the Fed rate hike is not the same as predicting the market’s reaction to it The benchmark interest rate of the Federal Reserve is now 1% after the central bank hiked by 25 basis points on Wednesday. And while the Fed rate hike was virtually guaranteed, the Forex market’s reaction to it came as a […]

Bitcoin ETF Rejected by the SEC? No Problem!

Last Friday, March 10th, the SEC rejected a proposed change in its rules that would have allowed the Winklevoss brothers to create the first Bitcoin ETF. Following the decision, the price of the cryptocurrency fell over 20%, from nearly $1290 to as low as $975 in a matter of minutes. And while the speed and […]

Bitcoin Elliott Wave Outlook Ahead of the SEC

A month ago, on February 10th, we examined bitcoin’s tendency to extend the fifth waves of the impulse it draws. As of the time the article was published, the cryptocurrency was trading around $960, after a crash from $1075 to $914. But instead of selling with the other bears, the lessons learned from bitcoin’s manic-depressive past […]

GBPUSD Before and After the Giveaway

GBPUSD regained negative bias at the start of February and has been losing ground ever since. After forming a top at 1.2706 a month ago, the pair fell to as low as 1.2214 at one moment today and is currently trading near 1.2240. It is interesting to notice that roughly half of this 490+ pip decline happened […]

All from Forex

Bovespa Investors in for a Rough 2017

Prepare for more weakness in the Brazilian stock market Brazil’s investors finally took a breath last year. After several years of slow, but steady decline, the country’s benchmark Bovespa index rose from as low as 37 046 in January to as high as 65 291 in October. So, basically, 2016 has been a great year. […]

Nasdaq 6500 Within Bulls’ Grasp

Nasdaq’s early short sellers might come up short. Last week, the Nasdaq Composite index climbed to 5912, so if you are getting ready for the 6000 mark soon, you are probably not alone. Like the other two major U.S. stock market indices, the Nasdaq bottomed out in March, 2009, and has been rallying ever since. Its […]

DAX Bulls Generously Rewarded for Their Patience

Buy-and-hold proved to be a profitable strategy in the German DAX Keeping up with its U.S. equivalent, the German DAX has been rising steadily ever since the election of Donald Trump. The index has climbed from 10 402 to 12 031 in less than three months, which is a good return in anybody’s book. However, news-interpreting […]

Mere Mortals Should Leave Airlines to Buffett

Do not get us wrong, this is not a critique of Warren Buffett’s judgement. Who are we to criticize him, after all. In November, Berkshire Hathaway’s SEC filings revealed that the company has opened positions in four major U.S. airlines – American Airlines, United Continental Holdings, Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines. However, in our […]

All from Indices

The Elliott Wave Logic in Gold’s Ups and Downs

There is a pattern to be found in gold’s seemingly random walk In the middle of last month, the price of gold was hovering around $1230 for a while. Then, on February 15th, it made a bottom at $1216.60 and started rising again. The optimism went on for a couple of weeks until the precious metal […]

Gold’s Sudden Crash Mystery Explained

It was all looking good for gold at the start of the week. The precious metal seemed ready to continue the recovery from $1123 after climbing to a new intraday high of $1220 on Tuesday, but unfortunately for the bulls, it was not meant to be. Instead, a long a sharp decline of nearly $40 […]

Gold Demands More Than Just a Forecast

After plunging to $1241 a month ago, gold finally managed to reach the $1300 mark again and is currently trading slightly above it. Expecting a recovery of over $60 is not an easy task, especially after a a slump of similar size. Fortunately, to Elliott Wave analysts, “not easy” does not mean impossible. Three weeks […]

Gold: Two Waves and the Reversal in Between

Gold was going down ever since it touched $1375. It made an attempt to reach those highs again in July, but did not succeed. Instead, the bears took control again, causing a plunge to as low as $1302.40 last week, breaching the previous low at $1310.70. Such a breakout has probably triggered a lot of selling […]

All from Precious metals

Southwest Ready for a Hard Landing?

In June, 2016, Southwest Airlines was the subject of an educational article, titled ““Elliott Wave: The Devil Is In the Details”, where we presented three different scenarios for the stock’s future, in order to demonstrate that analysts should learn to look at one chart from different perspectives and keep all of them in mind. At […]

Bank of America and the So-Called Trump Rally

Bank of America stock proves that you cannot rely on politics for your investments Our previous article on the subject, titled “Bank of America: A Good Long-Term Bet?” was published on August 24th, 2016. Two and a half months before Donald Trump’s election for president, while the stock was trading near $15.30, the Elliott Wave Principle […]

Wells Fargo to Lose 30% from Now On?

Eight years and one fake accounts fiasco later, Wells Fargo’s uptrend is approaching its end The last time we wrote about Wells Fargo was in late-January, 2016. Fourteen months ago, the stock was trading below $49 a share, after a decline from $58.74. It was a $10-drop, which for the bank’s investors meant a 17% […]

Dark Clouds on Humana’s Horizon

It was a nice run, but Humana’s upside potential is limited from now on The last eight years must have been great for Humana Inc. investors. From its March 2009 bottom at $18.57, the stock has gained over $200 a share or roughly 1077%. That is 36.2% compounded annually, which is a great return in […]

All from Stocks

Avoiding Oil’s Fake Breakout Trap

“The current pullback is likely to take crude oil prices down to $50.50, before the bulls return…” This was the last sentence of the premium crude oil analysis we sent to clients five days ago, before the markets opened on Monday, January 9th. Crude oil closed at $53.68 on Friday, January 6th, after a recovery […]

Oil Down After Two Production Cut Deals. Why?

The last three weeks have been very interesting for the oil market. First it was Vienna, where OPEC members agreed to cut production by more than a million barrels a day. In response, the price of crude rose sharply to as high as $52.39 by December 5th. Then the bulls took a rest, which allowed […]

Riding Oil’s Hope-Inspired Rally

Crude oil’s December futures contract just climbed to 47.37 dollars a barrel in what is supposed to be a rally, inspired by hopes that OPEC members are going to agree to cut production in an attempt to lift oil prices. The market is probably the only place, where such an irrational thing as “hope” could have […]

Copper’s Rally Does Not Deserve Your Trust

Copper has been making the headlines recently after it left the consolidation area it was locked in and jumped to as high as 2.4589 as of today. Usually, when people see that something is rising in price, they rush to buy it. This has never been our way of doing things. In order to put […]

All from Commodities

Negative Social Mood, Pegida’s Best Friend

“Fears are growing in Germany of a far-Right resurgence stoked by the refugee crisis, after nearly 20,000 took to the streets of Dresden in the biggest rally by the Pegida anti-immigrant movement for months.” – The Telegraph One of the speakers at the rally actually expressed regret that “the concentration camps are out of action”. […]

Even Apple has Socionomic Problems

In 1940s, Edward R. Dewey hypothesized, that the tallest buildings are usually completed after significant market peaks. Now, 74 years later, this hypothesis is a good addition to the socionomic theory. The new science of Socionomics, founded by Robert Prechter Jr. in 1979, postulates that social mood drives financial, macroeconomic, political and social behavior, in […]

What do Ferguson and Iraq have in common?

Have you been watching the news recently? If yes, then you have probably heard about the riots in Ferguson and the US airstrikes against the extremist Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). But what do these two conflict zones have in common? And what does the Market have to do with it? The riots in […]

Is another Arab Spring lurking ahead?

The Arab Spring is a wave of revolutions, demonstrations and civil conflicts, which struck mainly Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria during 2010 – 2013. Mostly, people were angry with decades of dictatorship and the violation of basic human rights. Many leaders had been forced from power. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, who held office for almost […]

All from Socionomics

NZDUSD: Interpreting the Recent Shine Loss

NZDUSD has been rising during the last month and a half, but lost its shine recently by dropping from 0.7374 to as low as 0.7155 in just five trading days. As always, the main question is where is the pair going to from now on? If you do not want to blindly follow the herd, […]

NZDUSD Poised for a Corrective Recovery

NZDUSD has been steadily declining since November 8th, when it reached 0.7402. Currently trading near 0.7020, the bears seem unstoppable and after a selloff of over 400 pips, it looks like the pair is headed much lower. However, even the strongest trends are interrupted by moves in the opposite direction, which might cause a lot […]

EURAUD Could be Aiming at 1.51

The EURAUD pair has been in a downtrend for a month since February 11th. Then, on March 10th, the bulls woke up with a bang and lifted the exchange rate from 1.4465 to 1.5085 in just five hours. Today, EURAUD fell to as low as 1.4662, before climbing above 1.4850 so far. Which of the two […]

EURJPY Looking for Fibonacci Support?

The Elliott Wave Principle is a market forecasting method, based on pattern recognition. If an analyst is able to recognize a pattern on the chart and knows what should follow, he could as well be able to predict what the market is most likely to do next. That is what we are going to try […]

All from intraday