What To Expect From GBPUSD In 2015?

In one word: weakness. In the middle of the year GBPUSD reached above 1.70. Many economists were worried that the Pound’s strength may even hurt Britain’s economy. On the other hand, this is what we wrote on May 17th in an article, called “GBPUSD, Not As Optimistic As It Seems”: “GBPUSD has been in a strong uptrend for quite a long time. The pair managed to climb up from 1.4812 to nearly 1.70 without making a major correction. Some people even say the strength of the Great Britain Pound may soon start hurting Britain’s economy, since it makes British goods and services relatively expensive. But the science of Socionomics had shown us many times, that fear and greed are emotions accompanying the points of reversal. With fearful economists and greedy bullish speculators, we now have plenty of reasons to look at the situation from a different angle…” And by “different angle” we meant charts. Instead of simply extrapolating the uptrend into the future, we used the Elliott Wave Principle. It brought us to the exact opposite conclusion. The chart below shows, that we did not share the economists’ fears. 5-gbpusd-big-pic As the forecast suggests, the GBPUSD exchange rate was supposed to exceed the 1.70 mark and then reverse to the downside. If you have been following this pair, you know that it topped at 1.7190 on July 15th. Five and a half months later, GBPUSD is struggling to stay above 1.55. After a decline of about 1700 pips you might want to bet, that those same fundamental analysts who were extremely bullish in July, are extremely bearish today. That is because their analyses are based on economic data, which lags the market. It is like driving a car while looking at you rear view mirror all the time. It might work for a while, if the road is straight, but you know that eventually there is going to be a turn somewhere. You better keep your eyes on the road. The next chart shows how GBPUSD looks like on a weekly basis. More than seven months after the forecast, there is no reason to doubt its validity so far. gbpusd 30.12.14 As visible, the long term bearish scenario is still in play. However, the pair is now entering a strong support zone between 1.56 and 1.52, which may slow the bears’ rush down for a while. After that, the larger downtrend should continue towards the target of 1.30. If this is the correct count, 2015 is not going to be a good year for GBPUSD as well.

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