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EURUSD Next Stop: Parity

In “EURUSD, Well Done. Now What?”, published on August 24th, we suggested “the euro might climb to 1.16, before the bears return.” As it turned out, EURUSD not only reached, but even exceeded this target. The pair climbed as high as 1.1713. Nevertheless, the Elliott Wave Principle has been warning us to expect a bearish reversal soon. That is why we were more than pleased, when EURUSD started declining. On September 3rd, the exchange rate fell to 1.1087. eurusd 20.9.15 As visible, the entire price action since the middle of March has been developing between the parallel lines of a channel, which is likely to be corrective. The W)-X)-Y) double zig-zag correction appears to be over, which means the larger downtrend is in progress once again. In order to confirm this assumption, let’s take a closer look at EURUSD’s behavior during the last month. eurusd 1h 20.9.15 According to the theory, a five-wave impulsive decline, followed by a three-wave recovery, means we should expect the euro to weaken against the US dollar from now on. Furthermore, wave (2) seems to have ended near the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is where corrections often terminate. If this analysis is correct, EURUSD might plunge to a new low, below 1.0460. Do not be surprised, if the pair reaches parity in the months ahead.

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