We wrote a bullish article about leading European fitness chain operator Basic-Fit four months ago. That thesis has been going well so far with the stock up 19% already. Basic-Fit’s American equivalent Planet Fitness, on the other hand, is down almost 11% in 2026 already and it is only January. The massive winter storm, which is expected to hit half of the US this weekend and reduce traffic at fitness gyms, probably explains why the market has been selling PLNT recently.
Could this be an opportunity for long-term investors to take advantage of the market’s myopia and how much further can the stock fall before finding bottom? The Elliott Wave chart below is giving us a hint by allowing us to put this month’s drop into proper perspective.
Similar Elliott Wave setups occur in the Forex, crypto and commodity markets, as well. Our Elliott Wave Video Course can teach you how to uncover them yourself!
The daily chart of Planet Fitness shows that the rise from $44 in 2023 to $114.50 in 2025 is a textbook five-wave impulse. We’ve labeled the pattern 1-2-3-4-5 in wave (1), where three lower degrees of the trend are also visible within the structure of wave 3. According to the theory, a three-wave correction follows every impulse.
We think that’s precisely what the current weakness stands for. Waves A and B of (2) seem to be in place already, which means that wave C is now dragging Planet Fitness stock down. It is supposed to breach the low of wave A, putting downside targets near $80 a share within the bears’ reach. However, once a correction is over the preceding trend resumes. Instead of extrapolating the recent decline indefinitely into the future, we’d expect a bullish reversal for the start of wave (3). That being said, we continue to think that Basic-Fit is a better fit for our stock portfolio than Planet Fitness. Not only is it growing revenue faster, but its valuation is also much lower.
In our Elliott Wave PRO subscriptions we provide analyses of Bitcoin, Gold, Crude Oil, EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and the S&P 500 every Sunday and Wednesday! Check them out now!
