“Natural gas prices could go down to 3.00 or even lower during the next year or two.” This is the final sentence in “Natural Gas Down Despite Russia-Ukraine. Why?”, which we published almost a year ago, on May 2nd, 2014, when natural gas was trading around 4.70. Ignoring the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we decided to trust the bearish forecast the Elliott Wave Principle was suggesting. You can see it on the chart below.
Our pessimistic outlook on natural gas was dictated by the advance from 1.90 to 6.40. As visible, it consists of only three waves. This means it is just a correction of a larger downtrend. It is always wiser to trade in the direction of the larger trend. That was the only reason for our bearishness. Those, who have been following this market, know how things went. The chart below will visualize it to the rest.
As you can see, soon after the forecast, the price of natural gas started falling. Yesterday, April 10th, 2015, it reached 2.50. This is well below the initial target of 3.00. And, please, do not blame it on the Russia-China $400 billion gas deal. It was signed on May 21st, 2014, or 19 days after the forecast. Later on, there was another gas deal between these two countries… in November. This is an excellent example of the fact, that the Wave Principle does not need news and events to make accurate long-term predictions. All a man needs is a chart. And charts are easy to find.
