Copper’s Selloff Not a New Bear Market

Copper fell by over 58% between February 2011 and January 2016. By late-2017 it looked like the commodity was finally out of the woods as the price rose to almost $3.30. Analyst were already anticipating even higher prices driven by an increased demand by the electric vehicle manufacturers and China’s economic growth. Alas, the market…

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One Big Problem with USDCNH’s Uptrend

The U.S. dollar has been in a strong uptrend against the Chinese Yuan since mid-January, 2014. In less than three years, USDCNH climbed from 6.0150 all the way up to 6.8494 so far. After such a massive gain investors might start to think it is a good time to join the bulls. Unfortunately, no trend…

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China’s Stock Market Crash Is Not Over

China’s Shanghai Composite stock market index reached 5178 on June 12th. Rising prices made everyone invest. Even those, who knew nothing about stocks, decided they should put their money in the market, afraid they would miss out on “the great bull market”. Then, the market collapsed. The index fell to 3500 in less than a month.…

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Natural Gas Does Not Care About Deals

“Natural gas prices could go down to 3.00 or even lower during the next year or two.” This is the final sentence in “Natural Gas Down Despite Russia-Ukraine. Why?”, which we published almost a year ago, on May 2nd, 2014, when natural gas was trading around 4.70. Ignoring the tension between Russia and Ukraine, we…

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China ETF in Final Stages of Advance

It’s been more than six years since the China Index ETF bottomed at 52.05 in October 2008. Now, in 2015, the index is looking far much better, trading around 140. Last week it even managed to climb to 151.50, which is a rally of almost 100 figures, compared to the 2008 lows. But is the…

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China ETF fulfilled the expectations

“Long positions pay-off well, if they are opened near the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The invalidation level is 87.80, while the minimum target should be above the top of 101.00.” This is an excerpt from an article about the China ETF Index, which we published more than a month ago, on April 29th. The chart below will show…

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China ETF. A bullish setup.

On the 1-hour chart of the China ETF we can see a very clear impulsive five to the upside with an ending diagonal in the fifth wave. Normally, after the end of this rally, a correction developed. It seems to be in the form of a double zig-zag labeled w-x-y. Ideally, after the 5-3 Elliott Wave cycle, long…

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What is going on with China and the other emerging markets?

China’s economic health is represented by the Shanghai index. Since the 2007-2008 crash China has been having huge difficulties standing up. There has been just a little upside movement and it looks corrective. After the short rally prices continued lower as the downtrend line remained mainly untouched, which indicates for an accelerated down movement. Usually…

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What is credit inflation?

This chart contains some of the worlds biggest indices. It clearly shows, that every other country except the USA is still trying to recover from the 2008 crash. Even countries like China and Germany are still struggling and can not come close to the point they were before the crash. On the other hand the…

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