More than a month ago, on June 17th, we published “EURUSD Complicated Ahead Of FOMC”. With the pair trading near 1.1260, the wave structure was suggesting it could reach 1.15, before reversing to the south again. The chart below shows how the forecast looked like then.
As visible, we were expecting a post-triangle thrust for wave “c” to the upside, before the bears return. If you have been following EURUSD, you know it only climbed to 1.1428. However, the analysis fulfilled its purpose to prevent you from buying at the top! Here is how EURUSD looks like today.
All the price action since the top on May 15th seems to be corrective. In other words, we are still expecting wave Y) to the upside. The count, shown above, is the first alternative. It suggests wave Y) has already started. If so, the bottom at 1.0808 should be safe from now on, as long as wave Y) is in progress. According to the second alternative, wave X) is not over yet.
If this is the correct count, we will have to wait for wave 5 of “c” of Y of X) to the downside, before the bulls take the wheel again. The important thing is that both scenarios are preparing us for much higher EURUSD levels in the weeks ahead. Despite Greece and all that, suggesting the euro is going to get weaker and weaker, the bears should be careful, because the Elliott Wave Principle signals for the exact opposite.
