“If this is the correct count, target around 1.3520 should not be a problem. The invalidation of this intraday scenario is at 1.3650.” This is an excerpt from our previous forecast of EURUSD, made on July 11th. The next chart shows how this pair looked like, when the above-mentioned article was published.
Recommended reading: EURUSD right on track, now what?
As you can see, all of our expectations were based only on The Elliott Wave Principle. With a finished 5-3 Elliott Wave cycle, we had all we need to expect another sell-off in EURUSD. On the chart below you will see how the pair has been trading so far.
As visible, EURUSD did not reach our invalidation level of 1.3650. Instead of this, it began declining and reached our target of 1.3520 on July 16th. The question here, once again, is “now what?”. Well, there are two alternative counts. We cannot pick our favorite, because it is up to the Market to decide which one it will be. But we can prepare for both. The first one is given below.
According to this count, EURUSD has begun a series of 1-2 1-2 waves and it is only a matter of time before the downtrend accelerates. This is the most obvious count. The second one is a little more tricky.
The zone around 1.35 is a strong support level, no doubt about that. Sometimes such areas need more than one attempt before being broken. If this is the correct count, we should expect a C-wave to the upside, which will complete the whole expanding flat correction for wave (2)/(B) before the downtrend finally resumes in (3)/(C).
Having only one trading plan is a blessing. Unfortunately, this is not always the case, because in the market, there are no guarantees, only probabilities. However, it is always better to know what to expect, even if it is more than one thing, right?
