AUDUSD big picture

AUDUSD made its last top at 1.1080 in the end of July 2011 and declined by more than 24 cents to 0.8650 in just 3 years. A loss of value, that is quite impressive. But no trend lasts forever, so we might want to examine the wave structure of AUDUSD, in order to see whether we should expect more new bottoms or not. That 3-year period is shown on the chart below.

audusd

If the larger trend was to the downside, we should have been able to spot at least one impulsive wave. Since we do not see one, we conclude that the price action is corrective. To be more precise, what we have is a double zig-zag correction W-X-Y with wave X being a triangle. Triangles precede the final movement of the sequence, which in our case is wave Y. You can also see how price is contained within a corrective channel. If this is the correct count, we could expect the top at 1.1080 to be surpassed in the next 2-3 years.

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