In our previous analysis on the Russian MICEX index we stated that the drop-off in the Russian stock market would have happened with or without the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Now we think that this market would soon start to recover, no matter how the conflict will end and no matter what the Crimea referendum will decide. We think so, because we look at the charts. And the chart of the MICEX index is showing us a broken contracting triangle. If you are familiar with the Wave Principle, you probably know that triangles precede the final movement of the sequence. In our case, the triangle is in wave (B). Wave (C), which is currently developing, should form a bottom in the 1100 area. When that happens, we will be expecting the uptrend to resume and to go above 1900 in the long term. We will now use the opportunity to warn you, that the fundamentals are likely to be suggesting an endless bear market and the conflict will probably be at its worst. Prices should start rising despite all that.
You do not have to wait for the referendum in Crimea, or for the conflict to be over. All you have to do is look at the charts, because they show you the mass psychology and mass psychology is the reason. News and events are the outcome.
