close icon

USDTRY in a Corrective Pullback Within Uptrend

It has been 10 years since USDTRY bottomed at 1.1488 in January 2008 and started an uptrend that is still in progress. In late November 2017, the exchange rate climbed to as high as 3.9826, but then retreated to 3.7560 as of this writing. A lot of things happened during those 10 years. The world recovered from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, Barack Obama made way to Donald Trump in the White House, a military coup could not remove Recep Erdogan from power and now his grip on Turkey is stronger than ever. In the meanwhile, USDTRY seems to have been following the path of an Elliott Wave pattern the whole time.
usdtry elliott wave analysis
The weekly chart of USDTRY above shows the pair’s entire rally since January 2008. It looks like a five-wave impulse has been developing. The sub-waves of wave (3) are clearly visible, and the sub-waves of wave 3 of (3) can also be labeled as (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v). If this count is correct, wave (3) is over at 3.9826, which means a pullback in wave (4) should be expected to drag USDTRY to the support area of wave 4 of (3) near 3.4000, before the uptrend resumes in wave (5) to at least 4.0000.

On the other hand, once the U.S. dollar climbs to 4.000 against the Turkish Lira, the entire five-wave impulse from the bottom in January 2008 would be complete. According to the theory, every impulse is followed by a three-wave correction in the opposite direction. So instead of joining the bulls near 4.000, we should be very careful, because a major bearish reversal should occur, once wave (5) ends.

 



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

Japanese Yen Refuses to be the Dollar’s Latest Victim

Last week, when most major currencies like the euro, the Canadian dollar and the British pound (not to mention the Turkish lira) fell against the U.S. dollar, one currency managed not only to hold its ground, but to actually gain some against the greenback. The Japanese yen ‘s rise dragged the USDJPY pair down to…

Read More »

Two Months Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Turkey-Driven Selloff

EURUSD’s selloff has resumed. The pair fell to as low as 1.1432 earlier today, following a Financial Times report stating the European Central Bank is concerned about some European banks’ exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis. Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s Unicredit, and France’s BNP Paribas were among the big names mentioned in the report. Now, let’s see how…

Read More »

AUDNZD Gains 500 Pips After Fibonacci Encounter

AUDNZD shot up sharply today, following a statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that cemented the country’s interest rate at its current level for the foreseeable future. The pair was trading below the 1.1000 mark before the announcement, but rose to 1.1175 shortly after it. However, if you have been following our publications…

Read More »

GBPJPY Bears Remove a Major Hurdle

It has been less than 20 days since our last update on GBPJPY. On July 20th we shared our view that the pair is “looking into the hard Brexit abyss” and while the pair was trading around 146.20, we concluded that much lower levels should be expected. Of course, the bearish outlook was not based…

Read More »

USDCAD Down After a Tricky Elliott Wave Pattern

USDCAD climbed to 1.3290 on July 19th, but instead of lifting the pair even higher, the bulls lost momentum. A bearish reversal followed as a result. By July 25th, when we had to send our next update to subscribers, USDCAD was down to 1.3135. Was it a buy-the-dip opportunity or the beginning of a bigger…

Read More »

USDMXN Set to Recover, but Remains Vulnerable

It has been a painful month and a half for USDMXN bulls. The pair was almost touching the 21.00 mark on June 15th, when the bears returned with a vengeance to drag it to as low as 18.58 for an 11.3% plunge by July 26th. Some explain the strength of the Mexican Peso with the…

Read More »

New Forex Regulations in the European Union!

Forex regulations are about to change on the 1st of August for all traders in the EU. What’s happening? The European Securities and Markets Authority will force brokers to lower the leverage they offer on the four major currency pairs – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF to 30:1. Minor pairs will see an even larger…

Read More »

More analyses