close icon

USDHUF Close to Major Elliott Wave Support

Surprisingly or not, the U.S. dollar has been losing ground not only to its major rivals like the Euro and the Japanese yen, but against the Hungarian Forint, as well. USDHUF reached 302.22 on December 15th, 2016. A year later, it was hovering near 260.00 and before the end of January 2018, the pair fell to as low as 246.45. The chart below puts the recent plunge into Elliott Wave perspective, in order to find out what it means and what to expect from now on.
usdhuf elliott wave analysis
The decline in question looks like a textbook five-wave impulse with an extended third wave, whose sub-waves are also visible. The guideline of alternation has been taken into account by the market, as well, since wave 2 is a sideways running flat correction, while wave 4 is a sharp corrective recovery between 252.49 and 269.54. This brings us to the present, where wave (v) of 5 appears to be in progress, suggesting USDHUF is supposed to make one last low near 245.00.

But instead of joining the bears, traders would be better off staying aside, because according to the Elliott Wave principle, every impulse is followed by a three-wave correction in the opposite direction. In other words, we could expect a major bullish reversal once the five-wave decline from 302.22 is complete. A bullish divergence between the price and the MACD indicator is another reason not to trust wave (v)’s bearish breakout. If the bulls are to achieve a decent retracement, they need to be able to lift USDHUF at least to the resistance area of wave 4 of the impulsive selloff, which lies around the 270.00 mark. Once there, the 5-3 wave cycle would be complete and the bears would once again be ready to drag the exchange rate to new multi-year lows.



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

Japanese Yen Refuses to be the Dollar’s Latest Victim

Last week, when most major currencies like the euro, the Canadian dollar and the British pound (not to mention the Turkish lira) fell against the U.S. dollar, one currency managed not only to hold its ground, but to actually gain some against the greenback. The Japanese yen ‘s rise dragged the USDJPY pair down to…

Read More »

Two Months Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Turkey-Driven Selloff

EURUSD’s selloff has resumed. The pair fell to as low as 1.1432 earlier today, following a Financial Times report stating the European Central Bank is concerned about some European banks’ exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis. Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s Unicredit, and France’s BNP Paribas were among the big names mentioned in the report. Now, let’s see how…

Read More »

AUDNZD Gains 500 Pips After Fibonacci Encounter

AUDNZD shot up sharply today, following a statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that cemented the country’s interest rate at its current level for the foreseeable future. The pair was trading below the 1.1000 mark before the announcement, but rose to 1.1175 shortly after it. However, if you have been following our publications…

Read More »

GBPJPY Bears Remove a Major Hurdle

It has been less than 20 days since our last update on GBPJPY. On July 20th we shared our view that the pair is “looking into the hard Brexit abyss” and while the pair was trading around 146.20, we concluded that much lower levels should be expected. Of course, the bearish outlook was not based…

Read More »

USDCAD Down After a Tricky Elliott Wave Pattern

USDCAD climbed to 1.3290 on July 19th, but instead of lifting the pair even higher, the bulls lost momentum. A bearish reversal followed as a result. By July 25th, when we had to send our next update to subscribers, USDCAD was down to 1.3135. Was it a buy-the-dip opportunity or the beginning of a bigger…

Read More »

USDMXN Set to Recover, but Remains Vulnerable

It has been a painful month and a half for USDMXN bulls. The pair was almost touching the 21.00 mark on June 15th, when the bears returned with a vengeance to drag it to as low as 18.58 for an 11.3% plunge by July 26th. Some explain the strength of the Mexican Peso with the…

Read More »

New Forex Regulations in the European Union!

Forex regulations are about to change on the 1st of August for all traders in the EU. What’s happening? The European Securities and Markets Authority will force brokers to lower the leverage they offer on the four major currency pairs – EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF to 30:1. Minor pairs will see an even larger…

Read More »

More analyses