Crude Oil extended its five-wave decline, dropping by more than 5$, from 105,25 to 100,10, despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So, from a fundamental point of view, this fast drop-off was rather surprising. But from an Elliott Wave perspective it was naturally expected, as you can see from our analysis on February 25th. As shown below, after the impulse we have a three-wave rally. The 5-3 cycle looks complete and we should expect more weakness, leading prices below 100.10.
That a-b-c correction developed fast. We know that corrections are “slow and choppy” movements. Our second count suggests, that this rise is only the first part of the whole retracement – wave W. If this is the correct count, waves X and Y should be completed before the downtrend resumes.