The crude oil market is capable of going from a state of oversupply to one of not enough supply in relatively short time. OPEC and Russia’s decisions and the fact that in a normal year the world consumes over 100 million barrels of oil daily cause the pendulum to swing from glut to deficit quite…
Crude Oil Bears Make the Most of Their Time to Shine
After the market broke during the pandemic panic and crude oil prices fell into negative territory, a quick and sharp surge followed. WTI climbed to $43.84 a barrel in late-August. But the crisis was far from over and the Elliott Wave principle helped us correctly predict the bearish reversal that came next. Now, crude oil…
A Pattern + Drone Attacks Equals an Oil Price Spike
The price of WTI crude oil spiked at the open on Monday, following drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities over the weekend that practically cut the kingdom’s output in half. How long will it take for output to be restored and is the situation going to escalate from here remains to be seen. The…
Crude Oil Bears Needed a Spark. Trump Threw a Bomb
The price of crude oil recorded its biggest daily decline in four years Thursday after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. The U.S.-China trade war has been unfolding during most of Trump’s presidency. With the 2020 elections approaching, many thought a trade deal might be in the…
Crude Oil Ignores OPEC-Russia Deal to Breach $50
WTI crude oil dipped below $50 a barrel in late-November, but quickly recovered to $54.54 on December 4th. The price spent the next ten days above the $50 mark and it looked like the bulls might be able to bounce up from this key psychological level. Unfortunately for them, the price of crude oil fell…
Crude Oil: How Elliott Wave Deals with Uncertainty
On October 3rd, the price of WTI crude oil was up 27.9% year-to-date, corresponding to a rally from $60.09 to $76.88 a barrel in a little over nine months. Unfortunately for the bulls, no trend lasts forever and the rest of October confirmed that fact. Crude oil prices plunged to $64.83 yesterday, erasing almost 72%…
WTI Crude Oil and the Case Against Top/Bottom Picking
Traders often think they have to catch each and every move in its entirety, in order to be successful. The sad truth is that is impossible and trying to achieve it can easily backfire and lead to more losses instead of bigger profits. Whether you trade Forex, WTI crude oil or stocks, nobody can catch…
Crude Oil Bears Betrayed By a Trend Line
It was a good week for the crude oil market, which has been under pressure for over a month. WTI climbed to as high as $75.24 on July 3rd, but the bulls could not keep the positive momentum, which led to a decline to as low as $64.40 by August 15th. And just when it…
WTI Crude Oil ‘s Flirt with $66 Was No Coincidence
WTI crude oil set an upbeat mood at the start of last week and managed to lift the price to $69.89 on Monday, August 6th. They could not keep the positive momentum for very long though, as the price quickly reversed to the south again. By Friday, August 10th, the bears had already dragged WTI…
Crude Oil Even Weaker than Expected
WTI crude oil bulls looked very confident at the start of the week, when they lifted the price to $70.41 a barrel on Monday, July 30th. Unfortunately, their enthusiasm quickly faded, allowing the bears to cause a selloff to $67.34 as of Wednesday, August 1st. One of the possible “reasons” for the decline was the…
“Black Swan” Pattern Sends Crude Oil Plunging
Crude oil bulls gave their best to reach a new high last week. Alas, $74.67 was all they were capable of before running out of momentum. The following sharp plunge dragged the price of WTI crude oil to an intraday low of $69.21 on Thursday for a 7.3% weekly loss. Among the “fundamental” factors the…
OPEC Boosts, Oil Surges, Elliott Wave Explains
Correct us if we are wrong, but shouldn’t a supply increase lead to lower prices? Well, at least that was the cause and effect relationship OPEC has been relying on when they decided to increase oil production at a meeting in Vienna on Friday, June 22nd. In an attempt to put the recent oil price…
Crude Oil and USDJPY Ruled by One Pattern
Everything was going so well for USDJPY and crude oil bulls until last week, when both the exchange rate and the WTI crude price made sharp bearish reversals. Oil fell from as high as $72.88 to $67.40 a barrel, while USDJPY plunged from 111.40 to 108.95. Normally, the media tried to explain the selloffs with…
WTI Crude Oil Knocking on a Major High’s Door
Between January 25th and February 9th, WTI crude oil’s price plunged from $66.62 to $58.06 a barrel, losing 12.8% in just 12 trading days. What the bears did in just over two weeks, the bulls needed a month and a half to recover from. Finally, oil prices climbed to $66.52 earlier today, following last week’s…
USDCAD and Crude Oil Abandon Negative Correlation
Between 2000 and 2016, USDCAD and crude oil had a negative correlation in 93% of the time. Canada is one of the world’s biggest oil producers and the largest oil supplier to the United States. So, when U.S. demand for oil rises, demand for Canadian dollars rises, as well, thus hurting the USDCAD exchange rate.…
