The post-pandemic normalization of biotech funding and growth has been especially painful for Alexandria Real Estate investors. The stock price of this biotech and sciences landlord is down by almost two-thirds from the all-time high of $225 it reached on the last day of 2021. Sales growth decelerated from 22.5% in 2022 to 8% in 2024, before turning negative in 2025 so far. With the Trump administration cutting funding for science projects now, shareholders have every reason to worry.
But in reality, Alexandria isn’t going anywhere. The company continues to be the leader in what it does, it is financially stable and its dividend is well-covered. Nor do we think that America is going to quit science altogether for good. Does the current uncertain situation present a buying opportunity then? At just 9 times funds from operations, Alexandria surely seems undervalued. The Elliott Wave chart below also indicates that a bottom must be near.
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We can divide this crash into three separate phases. The first one was a five-wave impulse from $225 down to $127, marked 1-2-3-4-5 in wave A. The theory states that a three-wave correction follows before the trend continues in the direction of the impulsive structure. That’s precisely what happened with Alexandria. An a-b-c recovery to $173 took place in the last two months of 2022. This was the second phase.
Then, the bears returned with a vengeance to drag the stock below $70 in May, 2025. Instead of another impulse, that third phase has been developing in three-wave structures. This strongly suggests that wave C is going to be an ending diagonal, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The fourth wave must overlap wave 1, putting short-term upside targets above $91 on the table. Instead of joining the bulls there, however, we think investors should prepare for another ~30% drop in wave 5 to the low-$60s, before a sustainable recovery can finally begin.
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