It was just a month ago, on June 27th, when we wrote that there was a bullish Elliott Wave setup in place on the 4h chart of SUI. The then-13th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap was trading just above $2.64 per coin after a big drop from $4.30. We thought that a recovery to nearly $4.50 was likely, though, not because of some special insight into SUI’s fundamentals, or lack thereof, but because of the structure on the chart below.
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A five-wave impulse to the upside from $1.72 to $4.30, marked 1-2-3-4-5 in wave A, was followed by a w-x-y double zigzag in wave B down to $2.30. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the uptrend was supposed to resume in wave C, whose initial targets lie above the top of wave A. This is how $4.50 became the bulls’ approximate goal. Earlier today, SUI exceeded $4.44, up 68% since we spotted this setup. The updated chart below shows how that happened.
The price didn’t move in a straight line, of course. Instead, it produced another five-wave impulse to the upside, marked 1-2-3-4-5, where two lower degrees of the trend are visible within wave 3. Wave 5 of C just exceeded the top of wave A, so our initial bullish target has more or less been reached. That’s the good news. The bad news is that this means that the easy money has already been made.
The market has a choice to make now. Is the rally from $2.30 to $4.44 really a C-wave or just wave (1) of an even bigger uptrend? According to the first possibility, we have a complete A-B-C correction in place, implying much lower prices ahead as the preceding downtrend resumes. The alternative involves a relatively small pullback in wave (2), before the bulls return with a vengeance in wave (3). Unfortunately, there is no way to tell in advance which one the market is going to pick. We’ll have to keep both possibilities in mind and just wait and see.
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