Leading fintech company Global Payments used to be part of our portfolio. We took our small profit and sold the position at $132 in February, 2024, because of the company’s accounting practices. GPN not only reports adjusted earnings, which has become a standard practice on Wall Street, but it also publishes adjusted free cash flow. In our opinion, it shouldn’t be this difficult to figure out how much money a business really makes.
Despite being cheap on an adjusted-figure basis at $132 when we got out, the stock has kept falling since. As of this writing, it trades below $73 per share, down 45% since we sold and 67% from its all-time high of $221 reached in April, 2021. While we have no plans of buying Global Payments again, the Elliott Wave shape the stock price has drawn indicates that its long bear market could finally end soon.
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The decline from $221 can be seen as an almost complete A-B-C simple zigzag correction. Wave A is a leading diagonal, while a five-wave impulse pattern is on the verge of forming in wave C. Both structures are labeled 1-2-3-4-5. If this count is correct, wave 5 of C could drag Global Payments stock below the $60 mark.
Once in the $50s, however, the entire corrective structure from $221 would be complete. According to the theory, once a correction is over, the preceding trend resumes. Since GPN was clearly in an uptrend prior to 2021, it makes sense to expect a bullish reversal and a subsequent recovery. Now that Fiserv has finally joined Fidelity, Global Payments, PayPal and the other big fintechs in the crash, the industry could finally be ready to bounce back. Judging by the chart above, GPN could do it as soon as 2026.
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