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S&P 500: Is “Black Monday” Appropriate?

They called it a “Black Monday” again. Every time the stock market crashes unexpectedly, they call it “black” day. It sounds good in the titles. It makes people click on the link and read the article. But what does it mean? An unexpected big sell-off, right? It seems the key word here is “unexpected”. But if one expected it, should he still call it “black”?
On April 21st, 2015, we published “S&P 500 Ready For 15 Percent Correction?”. The title speaks for itself. While S&P 500 was trading above 2100, we were preparing for a major decline. On the daily chart of the index there was an almost finished ending diagonal.
black monday s&p500 daily 21.4.15
According to the Elliott Wave Principle, this pattern is followed by a “swift and sharp” reversal. In other words, once wave 5 of (5) of III was over, the S&P 500 was supposed to “fall by roughly 300 points to around 1850”. The next chart shows what has happened since that forecast.
black monday s&p 500 daily 24.8.15
They called it a “Black Monday”, because they did not expect the S&P 500 to fall as low as 1833. But Elliotticians did, so should we call it “black” too? No. In our opinion, the whole decline from 2136 to 1833 is just a natural correction, which could have been, and was, predicted. A good example of the Wave principle’s forecasting capabilities.



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