Natural gas prices have been declining steadily, despite all the tension between Russia and Ukraine. For many fundamental analysts this might have come as a surprise, but not for you, if you have read “Natural Gas down despite Russia-Ukraine. Why?”, which we published on May 2nd 2014. The chart below is taken from the above-mentioned article. It shows how our Elliott Wave forecast of natural gas looked like three months ago.
As you can see, we were expecting prices of natural gas to go lower through the rising trendline. On the next chart you will be able to see how the situation has been developing during the last three months.
Note that the trendline has been broken as expected two weeks ago. From now on there are two alternative counts. The first one suggests much lower levels, if prices form an impulsive decline. On the other hand, the sell-off could be limited to only three waves a-b-c, which could lead to higher prices of natural gas. At this moment, there is no point in guessing the correct count of the two. Waiting for the Market to decide is preferable.