After silver surged 148% in 2025, many thought the price was going to keep skyrocketing in 2026, as well. And for a while it did. Alas, January’s 70% rise to over $121 was instead followed by a 55% crash to $54.77 by mid-July. The question is, can August’s 20% recovery continue or is it just another corrective rally within the ongoing downtrend?
Geopolitical instability and inflation generally bode well for precious metals, but silver, gold and platinum fell sharply in H1 regardless of the Iran war and rising energy prices. So instead of relying on macro factors, whose timing and impact are nearly impossible to determine, let’s instead focus on what the market is telling us directly through the charts.
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Silver’s 4h chart reveals the Elliott Wave structure of the entire drop from nearly $122 to just under $55 an ounce. It can be seen as a W-X-Y double zigzag correction, where each wave was a simple (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag. The impulsive structure of the two motive waves within wave Y is visible, as well, and labeled 1-2-3-4-5. The five sub-waves of wave 3 of (c) of Y are marked i-ii-iii-iv-v. If this count is correct, silver’s first half bear market is over at $54.77. As long as it trades above that level, it makes sense to expect more gains towards a new all-time high in the months ahead.
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