You do not have to wait for Crimea

In our previous analysis on the Russian MICEX index we stated that the drop-off in the Russian stock market would have happened with or without the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Now we think that this market would soon start to recover, no matter how the conflict will end and no matter what the Crimea referendum will decide. We…

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What is going on with China and the other emerging markets?

China’s economic health is represented by the Shanghai index. Since the 2007-2008 crash China has been having huge difficulties standing up. There has been just a little upside movement and it looks corrective. After the short rally prices continued lower as the downtrend line remained mainly untouched, which indicates for an accelerated down movement. Usually…

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Nikkei in bear’s paws

Nikkei is a stock market index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is the most quoted index in Japan, similar to Dow Jones Industrial in USA. The downtrend in Nikkei has started in 1990. The recent advance has been a corrective zig-zag (ABC). The triangle in wave four signalized that there is one last movement…

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The rebirth of the US Dollar (update)

The US dollar has been behaving quite well despite of the bad fundamentals, because the market is driven by social mood, not economic news. The economy lags the market. The greatest thing about the Elliott Wave Principle is that you know when your scenario is wrong. Every scenario has its own invalidation level and this…

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The rebirth of the US Dollar

The US dollar index has been rallying in an impulsive fashion since the end of October. The FEDs stimulus has been lowering the dollars value, but the FED can only offer it, not “inject it”. The start of a longterm rise in the dollars value has begun already in 2011, when gold reached its peak.…

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Stocks are sky-high! Should I buy some?

Stocks are in the atmosphere! Dow Jones has made a historical high in terms of price. Should we buy stocks? We at Elliottwave markets do not recommend buying stocks, because in terms of real money (gold), the Dow has been crashing since year 2000. The chart clearly shows us, that since year 2000, the Dow…

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What is going on with the Fear(VIX) index?

The CBOE Volatility Index is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world’s premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. The VIX reached its all time high at 2008, when…

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DJIA big picture, crash ahead?

The chart below shows that the price movement of the DJIA since year 2000 has corrective characteristics. In our opinion, an expanding flat correction has been developing after the orthodox top of wave “(3)”. Currently in wave “B”, we think that a new, massive crash for wave “C” of (4) is highly probable.