Two Months Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Turkey-Driven Selloff

EURUSD’s selloff has resumed. The pair fell to as low as 1.1432 earlier today, following a Financial Times report stating the European Central Bank is concerned about some European banks’ exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis. Spain’s BBVA, Italy’s Unicredit, and France’s BNP Paribas were among the big names mentioned in the report. Now, let’s see how…

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EURUSD Days and Hours Ahead of ECB and Draghi

The ECB yesterday announced that it will continue with its aggressive asset-buying program, although the pace of the purchases will be reduced starting April, 2017. In response to the news, EURUSD initially rallied to 1.0870, but then crashed all the way down to 1.0589 as of today. Let’s assume that you have predicted the ECB’s…

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EURGBP Strength Could Be Deceptive

ECB’s policy decision produced fireworks in EURGBP on Thursday. The pair initially fell to 0.7651, but then rose sharply to 0.7848. Trouble is, this gives us no clue about what to expect from the pair next. Is it a “buy” or a “sell”? Fortunately, the Elliott Wave principle eliminates the “flip a coin” approach, by…

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EURUSD to the Target and Beyond

Back in 2015, on December 19th, the majority of market analysts expected EURUSD’s post-ECB gains to be completely erased very soon, especially with the FED having raised interest rates for for the first time since 2006. Instead of going with the flow, we published “Time for EURUSD Bulls to Shine Again?”. The article’s purpose was…

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Time for EURUSD Bulls to Shine Again?

EURUSD rose after the ECB policy announcement on December 3rd, then fell following the FED’s decision to raise the interest rates on December 16th. Should we wait for the next major statement from the US or the European Union? Is it possible to get a clue about where the EURUSD exchange rate is most likely to…

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EURUSD Reversal Seen Way Before ECB

On December 3rd, EURUSD rose sharply from 1.0540 to above 1.0980, following the European Central Bank’s decision to lower the deposit facility rate to -0.30% and ECB’s willingness to extend its asset purchasing program to the end of March 2017 or beyond, if necessary. But did we need to know what the ECB was going to do,…

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ECB’s Quantitative Easing (QE) and Velocity

Why ECB quantitative easing program may not achieve the much needed results? If we follow the economic theory, an increase in the money supply should cause inflation and therefore price inflation. But here comes the tricky part. Most economists do not make the difference between these two concepts. Inflation is an increase in the overall money…

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EURUSD bear-trap after ECB

People see EURUSD‘s recent plunge as a result of ECB’s decision about interest rates. We at EWM see it as a natural post-triangle thrust in wave 5 down. Many experienced traders have the following motto: “trade against the news”. Well, the news is highly bearish for EURUSD, even in the long term. However, in or…

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USD index before ECB

ECB’s decision about interest rates can always bring some surprises into the markets, but it won’t hurt if we look at the USD index before the news tomorrow. The Elliott Wave Principle has the ability to absorb news quite often, so let’s see what the charts have to say. As shown on the 1-hour chart…

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