close icon

WTI Crude Oil ‘s Flirt with $66 Was No Coincidence

WTI crude oil set an upbeat mood at the start of last week and managed to lift the price to $69.89 on Monday, August 6th. They could not keep the positive momentum for very long though, as the price quickly reversed to the south again. By Friday, August 10th, the bears had already dragged WTI crude oil prices to an intraday low of $66.12 a barrel.

The ongoing trade war between the United States and China, and the less-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories reported by the EIA have probably contributed to WTI’s price drop, but as it usually happens with news and events, the degree of their impact remains a mystery. Elliott Wave traders, on the other hand, did not even have to pay attention to such external factors. All they had to do was look at the hourly chart of WTI crude oil, which we sent to subscribers a few hours before the market opened on Monday, August 6th.
WTI crude oil Elliott Wave analysis
According to the bigger picture outlook, which was also included in the analysis, the Wave principle suggested the bears were not done with WTI crude oil yet. It looked a w)-x)-y) double zigzag correction has been in progress since the end of the truncated wave 5 at $74.67. This meant that as long as the price stayed below the end of wave x) at $70.41, a new low in wave “c” of y) should be expected. But first, wave “b” up had to complete its three-wave structure. A week later, this is what WTI crude oil’s hourly chart looks like now:
WTI crude oil Elliott Wave update
Wave “b” rose to $69.89, but it did not endanger $70.41, so the negative outlook was still intact. Crude oil spent the rest of the week declining until it fell to a new low of $66.12 on Friday.

The U.S. and China have been imposing tariffs for months now and crude oil was not declining all the time – there have been recoveries, as well. Why use the trade war to explain this particular slump then? Such after-the-fact explanations for price swings is what leads people to the false conclusion that the markets are random and chaotic. The truth is that without the Elliott Wave principle, we would think so, too.

What will WTI crude oil bring next week? That is the subject of discussion in our next premium analysis due out later TODAY!

Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

Crude Oil Shows Why Alternative Counts Matter

Trade war fears are officially back, causing indiscriminate selling of stocks and commodities alike. Crude oil has been hit especially hard as supply glut worries are also beginning to reemerge. Crude oil closed at $53.34 a barrel last week, but this selloff was triggered by the breach of a key level in the week before…

Read More »

Crude Oil Made an Elliott Wave “Push-Up” Last Week

It has been an eventful week for crude oil traders. On Wednesday, January 16th, the EIA revealed that inventories have decreased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week. In the same time, it became clear that U.S. oil production rose to a record high of 11.9 million barrels per day. The first piece of…

Read More »

Catching Crude Oil ‘s $7-Rally Amid Supply Glut Fears

Crude oil bulls got slaughtered in the last three months of 2018. Between the start of October and the end of December, the price fell by over 45% from $77.07 to $42.21, sparking fears of a new supply glut. Then, the selloff’s sudden stop caught nearly everyone by surprise. Yesterday, WTI crude oil reached $52.48.…

Read More »

Crude Oil Ignores OPEC-Russia Deal to Breach $50

WTI crude oil dipped below $50 a barrel in late-November, but quickly recovered to $54.54 on December 4th. The price spent the next ten days above the $50 mark and it looked like the bulls might be able to bounce up from this key psychological level. Unfortunately for them, the price of crude oil fell…

Read More »

Crude Oil: How Elliott Wave Deals with Uncertainty

On October 3rd, the price of WTI crude oil was up 27.9% year-to-date, corresponding to a rally from $60.09 to $76.88 a barrel in a little over nine months. Unfortunately for the bulls, no trend lasts forever and the rest of October confirmed that fact. Crude oil prices plunged to $64.83 yesterday, erasing almost 72%…

Read More »

WTI Crude Oil and the Case Against Top/Bottom Picking

Traders often think they have to catch each and every move in its entirety, in order to be successful. The sad truth is that is impossible and trying to achieve it can easily backfire and lead to more losses instead of bigger profits. Whether you trade Forex, WTI crude oil or stocks, nobody can catch…

Read More »

Crude Oil Bears Betrayed By a Trend Line

It was a good week for the crude oil market, which has been under pressure for over a month. WTI climbed to as high as $75.24 on July 3rd, but the bulls could not keep the positive momentum, which led to a decline to as low as $64.40 by August 15th. And just when it…

Read More »

More analyses