Five months ago, in late-September, 2024, while the price of Solana was roughly $160, we wrote that the then-fifth biggest cryptocurrency “has more room to run before losing momentum.” Our initial estimates called for upside targets near $250, followed by a crash of more than 50% to the support near $120. That prediction wasn’t based on some special knowledge we possessed about crypto in general or Solana in particular. Instead, we relied solely on the chart below and the Elliott Wave pattern we thought was taking shape.
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The pattern in question was, of course, a five-wave impulse, marked (1)-through-(5), where wave five sub-waves of wave (3) were also visible. Wave (5) was still missing, so it made sense to expect more gains ahead, before the natural correction which follows every impulse can begin. Solana had more room to run and run it did. In fact, it not only made it to $250, but then went for $295 in January, 2025.
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Unfortunately for the bulls, the second part of our prediction is coming true as we speak. Solana fell to $125 earlier today, down 58% from last month’s record high. The updated chart below shows how the situation unfolded.
Wave (5) developed as a regular five-wave impulse, marked 1-2-3-4-5, although its fourth wave was a bit bigger than usual. Its shape and size, however, were not as important as the fact that the bulls were living on borrowed time. Once wave 5 of (5) ended at $295, the bears returned with a vengeance, erasing a whole year worth of gains in just over a single month.
The problem is that this near-60% selloff looks like a one wave move, not three. So, even if the support near $120 helps the bulls stage a recovery, it would likely be a temporary one, before the next leg down in wave (c). This being Solana and Solana being crypto, the depth of wave (c) is hard to predict and can surprise even the biggest skeptics. All we can say is that a return to double-digit territory looks very likely in the months ahead.
