The share price of United Natural Foods rose over 10% yesterday after the company raised its guidance for the year. The free cash flow estimate saw the biggest positive change to ~$200 million, which some would say makes UNFI undervalued at a market cap of just $1.6B. Others would oppose with the fact that the company also has $2B of debt on top of its equity. We side with the bulls, but for a very different reason.
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We lean bullish, because of the textbook Elliott Wave setup on the 4-hour chart of United Natural Foods. It consists of a five-wave impulse pattern to the upside, marked (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) in wave 1, and a simple (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag correction to the downside in wave 2. Two lower degrees of the trend are also visible within wave (iii), whose wave ‘iv’ is a triangle. We’ve also labeled the five-wave structures of waves ‘v’ of (iii) and (a) of 2.
If this count is correct, the bullish reversal from $20.78 marks the beginning of wave 3 up. Given that wave 3 is usually longer than wave 1, and that wave 1 travelled $26 to the upside, UNFI stock could plausibly double to over $50 from here. It looks like the company’s tasty produce can finally produce some tasty returns for shareholders.
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