We last wrote about Ubiquiti in August, 2023, when the stock was trading around $167 a share, down almost 60% from its 2021 record just over $400. Such a huge decline means that most investors have either already given up or thinking about it. Not to mention that at a P/E of 24, the company looked far from undervalued in the traditional sense. Elliott Wave analysis, however, led us to the conclusion that a major bullish reversal was just around the corner. Here is the single chart that prediction was based on.
Ubiquiti’s weekly price chart revealed an Elliott Wave cycle on the verge of completion. It consisted of a five-wave impulse to the upside, marked I-II-III-IV-V, and an A-B-C zigzag correction with an expanding flat in wave B. According to the theory, once a correction is over the preceding trend resumes. Here, the preceding trend was clearly to the upside, hence our expectations for a bullish reversal. The updated chart below shows what happened next.
Wave 5 of C reached a bottom at $103 in November, 2023. In early February, 2025, Ubiquiti climbed to a new all-time high of $470 a share, up 356% from the bottom of wave C and 180% since we wrote about the anticipated bullish reversal in August, 2023. The fundamental reason for this sharp surge was the sales growth acceleration in the company’s fiscal year-ending June, 2025. Elliott Wave analysis warned us about it much earlier.
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That being said, 2025 has not been as generous to Ubiquiti investors so far. Currently just under $300 a share, the stock is down by 10% year-to-date and by more than a third from its $470 record. Its daily chart, however, suggests that the bulls might be down, but they’re not out yet.
The rally from $103 should evolve into another five-wave impulse pattern, but so far hasn’t. Waves 1-through-4 seem to be in place, but wave 5 is still missing. The five sub-waves of wave 3 are clearly visible, and wave 4 looks like a simple a-b-c zigzag with a triangle in wave ‘b’. If this count is correct, and as long as $255 is intact, the uptrend can be expected to resume in wave 5 and lift Ubiquiti stock to a new record near $500 a share. Once there, the impulse pattern would be complete and it would be time for another notable decline in wave II to sub-$300 again.
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