Deckers Outdoor Corp., the owner of the Hoka, UGG and Teva footwear brands, is the third biggest loser in the S&P 500 this year. The stock is down 59.2% in 2025 after it plunged from an all-time high of $224 per share to under $83 as of this writing. This kind of investor punishment is typical when a company’s sales growth decelerates to single digits after several years of mid-teens increases.
At the same time, Deckers is still debt-free, healthily profitable and growing, albeit slowly. Following this year’s sell-off, the stock trades at just 13 times earnings, which is cheap, provided that sales growth doesn’t decelerate much further. Besides, the chart below shows that Elliott Wave analysis supports a positive outlook.
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It reveals that the surge from the pandemic low at $13.12 in March, 2020, up to $224 earlier this year, is a textbook five-wave impulse. We’ve marked the pattern (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), where the five sub-waves of wave (3) are also visible and labeled 1-2-3-4-5. According to the theory, a three-wave correction follows every impulse. In this respect, Deckers’ near-60% tumble is not a surprise.
It looks like a simple (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag retracement with a triangle in wave (b), marked a-b-c-d-e. Not only do triangles precede the final wave of the larger structure, wave (c) here, but the preceding trend resumes once a correction is over. This gives us two reasons to expect a bullish reversal soon. Three, if we count the company’s low valuation. Once the bulls return, new record highs would make sense in the long term.
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