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Crude Oil steady as it goes

Crude Oil extended its five-wave decline, dropping by more than 5$, from 105,25 to 100,10, despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict. So, from a fundamental point of view, this fast drop-off was rather surprising. But from an Elliott Wave perspective it was naturally expected, as you can see from our analysis on February 25th. As shown below, after…

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Alcatel-Lucent SA, big picture

The shares of Alcatel-Lucent SA have been dropping significantly from 13.80 to 0.70. As shown on the weekly chart, this decline is in impulsive fashion. At the bottom of wave 5, that 95% crash must have brought desperation among shareholders. Ironically, it was the right time for a switch in psychology, so when the fifth…

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Nikkei in bear’s paws

Nikkei is a stock market index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is the most quoted index in Japan, similar to Dow Jones Industrial in USA. The downtrend in Nikkei has started in 1990. The recent advance has been a corrective zig-zag (ABC). The triangle in wave four signalized that there is one last movement…

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Bayer AG, time to slow down

After a long and steady rise in wave 3 from September 2011 to January 2014, during which prices soared from 35 to 104 , it looks like Bayer AG’s stocks are ready for a more tangible corrective decline in wave 4. Since wave 2 is sharp, considering the rule of alternation, wave 4 should move…

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Siemens AG to the south

Siemens AG’s shares are looking bearish on the 1-hour chart. A 10 $ drop-off in five waves from 101 to 91, followed by a 3-wave a-b-c zig-zag would have been enough to send prices down again. However, corrections seldom are so simple. It seems that we are currently in wave Y up, which should make a…

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We warned you about Bitcoin. Did you listen?

The first chart below was posted on our Facebook page on November 27th 2013. Bitcoin was at its record highs around 1100-1200 back then, but we were warning you that it is already in corrective mode and a steep decline has to be expected. In the days after, the virtual currency peaked higher twice, but…

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McDonald’s Corp., this one could be a good buying opportunity

On the chart of McDonald’s below you can see a clear 5-wave impulse to the upside with a fifth wave extension. 5th wave extensions are usually retraced completely, which means that the following correction leads the price back to the level, where the extension started – the end of wave 4. As shown on the…

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What is an Expanding Triangle?

In terms of position of occurrence, wave structure and consequences the expanding triangle is the same as the regular contracting triangle. It can occur as a wave X, wave B or wave 4. It is a sideways movement. It consists of 5 waves marked a-b-c-d-e, structured 3-3-3-3-3. It also precedes the final movement of the…

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Crude Oil’s strength could be deceptive

Crude oil is in its seventh straight week of steady rise, but is it now the time to be a buyer? In order to find the answer to this question, we have to look at the charts. As shown on the daily chart below, the rally from 77.20 to 112.25 is a zig-zag correction (A)-(B)-(C)…

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Did you expect gold’s recent rise? We did.

The chart below was posted on our Facebook page on January 2, when the price of gold was 1210 $. We would like to remind you that back then all the fundamentals were pointing down. Some experts even stated that gold will go below 1000 during the first two months of 2014. We, at Elliott…

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The rebirth of the US Dollar (update)

The US dollar has been behaving quite well despite of the bad fundamentals, because the market is driven by social mood, not economic news. The economy lags the market. The greatest thing about the Elliott Wave Principle is that you know when your scenario is wrong. Every scenario has its own invalidation level and this…

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Is the FED controlling interest rates?

Here is a chart of the 10-Year Treasury Note all the way from 1981. The downtrend is over, marked with an ending diagonal. The rise in interest rates will continue as we see a sharp impulsive rally, typical for ending diagonals, signaling a reversal and symbolizing the new trend. The hidden engine behind the market…

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Black Wednesday

The day when the British government was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The date of the Black Wednesday crash was September 16, 1992, and five years later the UK Treasury estimated that the loss from that day was around £3.14 billion. The picture shows us how Bank of England…

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