Modern mania – Bitcoin

Mania defines as excitement of psychotic proportions manifested by mental and physical hyperactivity and elevation of mood. This behavior leads to extended fifth waves. They are usually retraced a 100%. Here is a textbook example of an extended fifth wave: Extended fifth waves are usually a result of greed or fear from hunger, drought. These…

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Socionomics perspective on music

Music reflects feelings, mood and trends. The first chart shows a stock market cycle (1950-1982) and the styles of music that were popular in the uptrend vs. the downtrend. In the 1950s and early 1960s, as the great bull market was underway, major pop music stars were young and energetic and their lyrical theme had…

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USDJPY, “The Falling Star”

“USDJPY will reach 115.00 in the first couple of months of 2014” -Deutsche Bank-. Well, we at Elliott Wave Markets think that we will not see another top from this pair.We think so, because we don’t rely on expert’s opinions or fundamental factors. We prefer looking at the charts, directly at market’s psychology. The first chart shows…

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Hollywood predicts stock market crashes?

Some may call it coincidence, but from Elliott Wave perspective it is just another sign of extreme optimism in the market. When big Hollywood productions about Wall Street are released, devastating stock market crashes follow. The first chart below shows our long term forecast on DJIA. On the second one you can see where the…

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Is the FED controlling interest rates?

Here is a chart of the 10-Year Treasury Note all the way from 1981. The downtrend is over, marked with an ending diagonal. The rise in interest rates will continue as we see a sharp impulsive rally, typical for ending diagonals, signaling a reversal and symbolizing the new trend. The hidden engine behind the market…

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Black Wednesday

The day when the British government was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The date of the Black Wednesday crash was September 16, 1992, and five years later the UK Treasury estimated that the loss from that day was around £3.14 billion. The picture shows us how Bank of England…

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EURUSD long-term perspective

EURUSD has been very stubborn in its attempt to hit the 61.8% Fibonacci level twice. It looks like this effort is going to be successful, because wave “c” of Y of (X) needs to be completed. In other words, figures around 1.39-1.40 should be reached, maybe during the first couple of weeks in 2014. After…

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Silver mania

Mass psychology plays a key role in forming trends in precious metals. The specific about precious metals is that they tend to form extended fifth waves in case of greed or fear of inflation. Silver has been trending down since 2011 and has lost its value by more than 50%. The first mania in silver…

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Gold after Bretton Woods

Gold has been trading on the free market since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. From then on, mass-psychology has been playing his role in shaping gold’s price movement. And since patterns of mass-psychology are the subject of the Elliott Wave Principle, we are able to presume where the yellow metal is…

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EUR GBP Cross Rate

Both EUR and GBP look weak against the US dollar, but which one of them is weaker, compared to the other? There are two wave counts on the charts below, suggesting that the EUR should be stronger than the GBP in the long term.        

What is credit inflation?

This chart contains some of the worlds biggest indices. It clearly shows, that every other country except the USA is still trying to recover from the 2008 crash. Even countries like China and Germany are still struggling and can not come close to the point they were before the crash. On the other hand the…

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The rebirth of the US Dollar

The US dollar index has been rallying in an impulsive fashion since the end of October. The FEDs stimulus has been lowering the dollars value, but the FED can only offer it, not “inject it”. The start of a longterm rise in the dollars value has begun already in 2011, when gold reached its peak.…

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Stocks are sky-high! Should I buy some?

Stocks are in the atmosphere! Dow Jones has made a historical high in terms of price. Should we buy stocks? We at Elliottwave markets do not recommend buying stocks, because in terms of real money (gold), the Dow has been crashing since year 2000. The chart clearly shows us, that since year 2000, the Dow…

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What is going on with the Fear(VIX) index?

The CBOE Volatility Index is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world’s premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. The VIX reached its all time high at 2008, when…

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Socionomic perspective on wars and diseases

Socionomics, the science of social prediction, pioneered by Robert R. Prechter Jr., provides education and benefits individuals and institutions through a better understanding of the dynamics of social and cultural change. Trends in collective psychology play a key role in the Elliott Wave Theory. Happy and optimistic people buy stocks, while pessimistic people sell stocks.…

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