Gold, intraday trading idea

Gold is looking bearish on the 5-minute chart. An intraday trading idea is shown on the chart below. Risk/reward ratio is at least 2,5:1.

USDJPY not as healthy as it seems

A very clear 5-wave decline can be counted in USDJPY, starting from the orthodox top at 104.92, where the fifth wave truncation ended. The corrective pattern after that decline looks like an A-B-C zig-zag with wave C ending diagonal. Wave 5 of C may reach the 102.90 – 103.10 zone. A resumption of the downtrend…

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Crude Oil’s strength could be deceptive

Crude oil is in its seventh straight week of steady rise, but is it now the time to be a buyer? In order to find the answer to this question, we have to look at the charts. As shown on the daily chart below, the rally from 77.20 to 112.25 is a zig-zag correction (A)-(B)-(C)…

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AUDUSD to finish an expanding flat

It looks like the recent rally on AUDUSD could be limited to the 0.9150 area. If this happens, we will have a complete expanding flat correction, after which the larger downtrend should resume. If you do not know what an expanding flat is, you can go to out “Education” section and look for the “Elliott…

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You better cover your shorts on EURCHF

The decline that started from 1.2391 seems to be at its final stages now. The chart of EURCHF depicts a complete 5-wave impulse to the downside, so it is time to expect a 3-wave correction in the opposite direction. Furthermore, price is making a strong bullish divergence with the RSI indicator, typical to occur between…

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Did you expect gold’s recent rise? We did.

The chart below was posted on our Facebook page on January 2, when the price of gold was 1210 $. We would like to remind you that back then all the fundamentals were pointing down. Some experts even stated that gold will go below 1000 during the first two months of 2014. We, at Elliott…

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Socionomics perspective on prohibitions

Positive social mood drives prohibitions of substances such as alcohol and marijuana. Negative social mood drives tolerance and relaxed regulation. Tolerance increased during the bear market of the 1970s, then decreased for 20 years during the bull market. The numbers began to decline sharply following the peak of the broad Value Line index of stocks in…

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The rebirth of the US Dollar (update)

The US dollar has been behaving quite well despite of the bad fundamentals, because the market is driven by social mood, not economic news. The economy lags the market. The greatest thing about the Elliott Wave Principle is that you know when your scenario is wrong. Every scenario has its own invalidation level and this…

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Modern mania – Bitcoin

Mania defines as excitement of psychotic proportions manifested by mental and physical hyperactivity and elevation of mood. This behavior leads to extended fifth waves. They are usually retraced a 100%. Here is a textbook example of an extended fifth wave: Extended fifth waves are usually a result of greed or fear from hunger, drought. These…

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Socionomics perspective on music

Music reflects feelings, mood and trends. The first chart shows a stock market cycle (1950-1982) and the styles of music that were popular in the uptrend vs. the downtrend. In the 1950s and early 1960s, as the great bull market was underway, major pop music stars were young and energetic and their lyrical theme had…

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USDJPY, “The Falling Star”

“USDJPY will reach 115.00 in the first couple of months of 2014” -Deutsche Bank-. Well, we at Elliott Wave Markets think that we will not see another top from this pair.We think so, because we don’t rely on expert’s opinions or fundamental factors. We prefer looking at the charts, directly at market’s psychology. The first chart shows…

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Hollywood predicts stock market crashes?

Some may call it coincidence, but from Elliott Wave perspective it is just another sign of extreme optimism in the market. When big Hollywood productions about Wall Street are released, devastating stock market crashes follow. The first chart below shows our long term forecast on DJIA. On the second one you can see where the…

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Is the FED controlling interest rates?

Here is a chart of the 10-Year Treasury Note all the way from 1981. The downtrend is over, marked with an ending diagonal. The rise in interest rates will continue as we see a sharp impulsive rally, typical for ending diagonals, signaling a reversal and symbolizing the new trend. The hidden engine behind the market…

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Black Wednesday

The day when the British government was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The date of the Black Wednesday crash was September 16, 1992, and five years later the UK Treasury estimated that the loss from that day was around £3.14 billion. The picture shows us how Bank of England…

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EURUSD long-term perspective

EURUSD has been very stubborn in its attempt to hit the 61.8% Fibonacci level twice. It looks like this effort is going to be successful, because wave “c” of Y of (X) needs to be completed. In other words, figures around 1.39-1.40 should be reached, maybe during the first couple of weeks in 2014. After…

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