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USDJPY, still bearish in the long term

Not many changes since our last post on USDJPY, except the better entry, which we now have for a long-term position. On the 4-hour chart, our count starts from the end of that truncated fifth wave. We have a complete 5-3 cycle. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, we are waiting for another drop-off. Considering our…

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Alcatel-Lucent SA, big picture

The shares of Alcatel-Lucent SA have been dropping significantly from 13.80 to 0.70. As shown on the weekly chart, this decline is in impulsive fashion. At the bottom of wave 5, that 95% crash must have brought desperation among shareholders. Ironically, it was the right time for a switch in psychology, so when the fifth…

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Nikkei in bear’s paws

Nikkei is a stock market index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is the most quoted index in Japan, similar to Dow Jones Industrial in USA. The downtrend in Nikkei has started in 1990. The recent advance has been a corrective zig-zag (ABC). The triangle in wave four signalized that there is one last movement…

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Crude Oil changed direction

Crude oil is confirming our bearish outlook on the 10 min chart. A complete impulse to the downside means that we have to prepare for a three wave rally and go short after it, in order to catch wave (3) or (C). From a trader’s perspective, it does not matter, if it is a third…

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Bayer AG, time to slow down

After a long and steady rise in wave 3 from September 2011 to January 2014, during which prices soared from 35 to 104 , it looks like Bayer AG’s stocks are ready for a more tangible corrective decline in wave 4. Since wave 2 is sharp, considering the rule of alternation, wave 4 should move…

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Siemens AG to the south

Siemens AG’s shares are looking bearish on the 1-hour chart. A 10 $ drop-off in five waves from 101 to 91, followed by a 3-wave a-b-c zig-zag would have been enough to send prices down again. However, corrections seldom are so simple. It seems that we are currently in wave Y up, which should make a…

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We warned you about Bitcoin. Did you listen?

The first chart below was posted on our Facebook page on November 27th 2013. Bitcoin was at its record highs around 1100-1200 back then, but we were warning you that it is already in corrective mode and a steep decline has to be expected. In the days after, the virtual currency peaked higher twice, but…

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Did we need a war in order to predict this? Russia

Tension between Ukraine and Russia has been rising for several weeks. Everyday you can hear all the media saying how the conflict is bringing the Russian stock market down. But did we need a war in order to predict this decline? Well, if we were fundamental analysts, the answer would have been undoubtedly “yes”. But…

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Gold, expanding or running?

Gold could afford interesting selling opportunity, if price falls below 1340. If this happens, the first target of 1320 offers a risk/reward ratio of 2:1, while the second one – more than 3:1. Keep in mind that running flats occur only 1 times out of 10, so chances are on the side of the expanding…

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Socionomics perspective on skyscrapers

In 1940s, Edward R. Dewey hypothesized, that the tallest buildings are usually completed after significant market peaks. Now, 74 years later, this hypothesis is a good addition to the socionomic theory. The new science of Socionomics, founded by Robert Prechter Jr. in 1979, postulates that social mood drives financial, macroeconomic, political and social behavior, in…

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McDonald’s Corp., this one could be a good buying opportunity

On the chart of McDonald’s below you can see a clear 5-wave impulse to the upside with a fifth wave extension. 5th wave extensions are usually retraced completely, which means that the following correction leads the price back to the level, where the extension started – the end of wave 4. As shown on the…

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EURUSD. A rare pattern. Will it work out now?

EURUSD has been very annoying with all those new lows and new highs since the middle of January. “New lows and new highs”, is there an Elliott Wave pattern that fits this description? Fortunately yes, there is one – the expanding triangle. Let’s see whether EURUSD’s recent price action looks it or not: The answer…

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What is an Expanding Triangle?

In terms of position of occurrence, wave structure and consequences the expanding triangle is the same as the regular contracting triangle. It can occur as a wave X, wave B or wave 4. It is a sideways movement. It consists of 5 waves marked a-b-c-d-e, structured 3-3-3-3-3. It also precedes the final movement of the…

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