In late-August, 2025, with Solana near $205, we wrote that the top-ten crypto was in the process of concluding a setup the bulls were not going to like. Solana had more than doubled over the previous four months so traders’ sentiment was understandably bullish. Elliott Wave analysis, however, revealed that the structure of that recovery was corrective, which in turn meant that another notable sell-off was likely to follow. We thought that “downside targets near $80 make sense for Solana in the months ahead” for “a decline of roughly 60%.” Here is the chart this prediction was based on.
The recovery from $95 looked like a simple A-B-C zigzag correction with a five-wave impulse in wave A and an ending diagonal in wave C. According to the theory, once a correction is over the preceding trend resumes. Since the bottom at $95 was the conclusion of a 200-dollar crash from $295, it made sense to prepare for another notable one. Almost seven months later now, the updated chart below shows how the situation developed.
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The first thing to notice was that the bearish reversal took longer than expected. The correction evolved into a (w)-(x)-(y) double zigzag instead, allowing Solana to exceed $250. That was of little consolation for the bulls, however. All it did was postpone the plunge, not cancel it. When it finally came, wave C dragged Solana to under $70, erasing the entire wave B and then some. The bulls definitely didn’t like it.
Now, wave C looks like a complete impulse pattern, marked (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5), where two lower degrees of the trend are visible within wave (3). If this count is correct, the entire A-B-C retracement from $295 to $67.50 is now over and it is time for Solana to head north again. For the bears, extrapolating the recent past into the future could be a costly mistake. While paying $95 for a purely speculative asset with no yield and no intrinsic value is a big ask for us, the Elliott Wave odds seem to favor the bulls again. This is the count to rely on as long as $67.50 holds.
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