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Socionomics perspective on prohibitions

Positive social mood drives prohibitions of substances such as alcohol and marijuana. Negative social mood drives tolerance and relaxed regulation. Tolerance increased during the bear market of the 1970s, then decreased for 20 years during the bull market. The numbers began to decline sharply following the peak of the broad Value Line index of stocks in April 1998. From a socionomic viewpoint, this trend reversal pairs nicely with the timing of peak optimism. Since 2000 a period of negative social mood at Grand Supercycle and Supercycle degrees began. When there is an uptrend, restrictive events occur and vice versa. Down-trending leads to more tolerant events.

prohibitions 2

The prohibition in the United States was a nationwide ban on the sale, production, import, and transportation of alcoholic beverages that remained in place from 1920 to 1933. Private ownership and consumption of alcohol was not made illegal under federal law. However, in many areas local laws were more strict, with some states banning possession outright. Nationwide Prohibition ended on December 5, 1933. Social events take time to develop and lag the market. That is why the ban was lifted shortly after the stock market hit bottom on 8 July 1932.


Having the history of prohibitions in mind, we are not surprised that the use of marijuana is becoming more and more acceptable, during and shortly after The Great Recession of 2007-2009.

“Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia currently have laws legalizing marijuana in some form.” –

Charts by Socionomics institute and Elliottwave International:


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