It has been less than a week since we published “What Is Next for Beaten Down Silver?” on March 29th. This article came right after a steep decline of about a dollar an ounce in the price of silver. Its purpose was to show how we could predict reversals, but also to warn traders for an upcoming corrective recovery, before the bears return. We thought this scenario was highly probable, because of what the Elliott Wave Principle allowed us to see on the 4-hour chart of the precious metal given below.
The 4-hour chart suggested silver has completed its five-wave impulse to the north and was already trading within the corresponding three-wave correction. It appeared the market was going to choose an (A)-(B)-(C) zig-zag correction, but in order to further support the count, we needed to take a look at the 30-minute chart too, which made the internal structure of the sell-off from 16.13 to 15.04 visible. It is given below.
And the 30-min chart showed us that the recent decline was an impulse in its final stages. According to the theory, every impulse is followed by a three-wave correction in the opposite direction. That is why we thought wave (B) to the north should be expected, before wave (C) to the south begins. The next chart shows how is silver trading right now.
As you can see, silver began recovering almost immediately after the forecast was published. The metal rose from 15.04 to 15.51 in an a-b-c zig-zag for wave (B). However, the Wave principle gave us a warning that “this is not the time to go long, because the bulls might get tired very soon and once they do, wave (C) should take the price of silver below 15.00.”
Last Friday, April 1st, silver prices fell as low as 14.78. That is how, thanks to Ralph Nelson Elliott and the principle he discovered in the 1930s, we are able to predict consecutive market swings in both directions in 2016. As far as we know, there is no other forecasting method, which is able to achieve such accuracy.
From now on, silver has fulfilled the minimum requirement for a 5-3 wave cycle, which means the trend is supposed to continue in the direction of the five-wave sequence. In addition, the relative strength index is showing a bullish divergence between waves (A) and (C). If this is the correct count, the bulls should take the wheel and try to take the price of silver back to the 16.00 area.
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