The share price of big data analytics company Palantir Technologies is up 23% today following the publication of its Q4 earnings report. It revealed another impressive quarter of growth across all important metrics. For the full year, total revenue rose 29%, while adjusted free cash flow came in at $1.25B. For 2025, Palantir expects another 30% of sales growth and roughly $1.6B in free cash flow.
Given these numbers, the future of Peter Thiel’s company looks bright no matter how you slice it. Does this make the stock a good investment at today’s price, though? It depends on one’s time horizon. According to the Elliott Wave chart below, the price might as well keep rising in the not-so-distant future. The long term, however, is a different story.
Similar Elliott Wave setups occur in the Forex, crypto and commodity markets, as well. Our Elliott Wave Video Course can teach you how to uncover them yourself!

Assuming a five-wave impulse has been in progress since the bottom in late-2022, it looks like wave 3 is on the verge of completion. Its five sub-waves are also visible and marked i-ii-iii-iv-v. If this count is correct, waves 4 down and 5 up have yet to complete the pattern. Given how fast the price is moving, we could be talking about just a few months’ time.
And this is where the short-term positive outlook gives way to a long-term negative one. According to the Elliott Wave theory, a three-wave correction follows every impulse. In the case of Palantir stock, it is likely to be a deep one for one simple reason: the company’s valuation is insane.
Following today’s surge, it has a market cap of more than $230B. Taking management’s 2025 guidance at face value, Palantir trades at 62 times revenue and 145 times free cash flow. We doubt that even a 30% revenue grower can ever justify such extreme multiples. The party could go on for a while, but when the music inevitably stops, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if the stock falls all the way back to 2023 levels.
In our Elliott Wave PRO subscriptions we provide analyses of Bitcoin, Gold, Crude Oil, EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and the S&P 500 every Sunday and Wednesday! Check them out now!