With a market cap of roughly $6B, Vail Resorts is a leading mountain resorts and regional ski areas operator in the United States and globally. The stock is up 15% today, after the company announced that Rob Katz, whose first 16-year run as CEO ended in November, 2021, would return to the helm. Can today’s stock price jump give birth to a sustainable uptrend then, or is it just a dead cat bounce? The weekly chart below gives Vail Resorts investors reasons for optimism.
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November, 2021, was significant for the company, not only because it changed CEOs. It was also the month in which the stock reached its all-time high of $376. In April, 2025, it fell to $130, down 65% from that record. So it is fair to say that Rob Katz timed his exit perfectly in late-2021. Furthermore, the timing of his return to the top job at Vail Resorts might be just as good.
The recent two-thirds decline wasn’t a coincidence and we doubt that whoever was CEO would’ve made a big difference. It followed a complete five-wave impulse pattern, marked I-II-III-IV-V, which began in 2003. Wave II took place during the 2008 Financial Crisis, while wave IV culminated in the Covid-19 panic of March, 2020.
According to the theory, a correction follows every impulse and usually erases the entire fifth wave. Just like it did in this case. On the other hand, once a correction is over, the preceding trend resumes. If this count is correct, new records lie ahead for Vail Resorts in the long term. The new CEO will probably be awarded the credit as he seems to have picked the bottom just as skillfully as he timed the top in 2021.
The decline between $376 and $130 looks like a complete A-B-C zigzag correction. Wave A is a leading diagonal, followed by a triangle correction in wave B. Wave C is a textbook five-wave impulse, marked 1-2-3-4-5. Together, this correction and the impulsive uptrend that preceded it give us a textbook Elliott Wave cycle and a clear bullish setup. We don’t know if new CEO Rob Katz uses Elliott Wave analysis, and of course, it is most likely just a coincidence, but we surely do envy his timing.
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