close icon

NZDUSD Two and a Half Months Later

It has been nearly two and a half months since we published “NZDUSD Getting Ready to Launch?”. On January 18th, 2016, the New Zealand dollar was trading around 0.6460 against the U.S. dollar. The pair has been in a sharp downtrend since mid-2014, so any bearish expectations were reasonable. However, the charts were sending the bears a warning sign, the majority of them probably did not notice. We did. The chart below shows what it was.
nzdusd 18.1.16
The 4-hour chart of NZDUSD was showing a clear five-wave impulse to the north between 0.6235 and 0.6896, followed by a larger A-B-C zig-zag correction. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, after every 5-3 wave cycle, such as this one, prices continue in the direction of the impulsive sequence. That was all the evidence we needed to form a bullish stance on NZDUSD back in January and say that as long as 0.6235 holds, the bulls are likely to aim at 0.6900. Those of you, who have been following this pair, know how the situation developed. The next chart will visualize it for the rest.
nzdusd 30.3.16
Soon after the forecast was published, NZDUSD fell to a new swing low near 0.6350. However, the invalidation level at 0.6235 was still far away, so the bullish scenario remained valid. Then the bulls came back to fight their way up. It was not easy. They had to deal with several sell-offs of more than 200 pips since the start of February, but eventually, the target of 0.6900 was reached and exceeded.
The Wave principle’s ability to help traders and investors predict reversals is probably its best characteristic. In this case, it not only warned us about the return of the bulls, but also provided a specific invalidation level and a target, thus making the trade depend entirely on patience… or the lack of it. Higher levels could still be expected in NZDUSD from now on.

What other markets are you interested in? Prepare yourself for whatever is coming. Order your on demand Elliott Wave analysis now or pre-order one of our 8 Premium Forecasts due out every Monday. Stay ahead of the news in any market with the Elliott Wave principle.

Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

GBPCAD Can Reach 1.9000 Before the Bears Return

GBPCAD bulls have been on a roll the past four months. The pair is currently trading above 1.7330, up 9.1% from its early-August low of 1.5875. And while the Forex market is not the place to rely on a trend for very long, it is not uncommon for GBPCAD to make large moves in either…

Read More »

EURAUD Impulse Pattern Keeps the Bulls in Charge

Twenty days ago, EURAUD managed to stop the bleeding and form a bottom at 1.5976. As of this writing the pair trades around 1.6250 after reaching 1.6324 on November 20th. Is the uptrend still in progress or should we prepare for the bears’ return? A look at EURAUD ‘s hourly chart through an Elliott Wave…

Read More »

EURUSD Turns Up Ahead of Brexit Talks Breakthrough

EURUSD is up by 260 pips since the beginning of October. The pair climbed from 1.0879 to 1.1140 in just 14 trading days. The rally appears to be fueled by optimism regarding a possible Brexit deal and the tentative “phase-one” agreement between the US and China. In our opinion, however, there is something more to…

Read More »

USDJPY Pattern Makes More Sense than Politics

The last two weeks were different like night and day for USDJPY traders. The pair fell from 108.47 to 106.48 during the first three days of October and eventually closed the week in negative territory. The last five trading days, on the other hand, told a much different story. Last week, USDJPY rose from 106.66…

Read More »

GBPAUD Elliott Wave Setup Supports the Bears

Between July 30th and August 26th, GBPAUD managed to recover from 1.7561 to 1.8337. Despite the no-deal Brexit prospects, the Australian dollar turned out to be even weaker than its British rival for almost a month. However, GBPAUD is down by roughly 400 pips since August 26th. Traders are probably wondering if this is a…

Read More »

EURUSD Absorbs Economic, Trade War and G-7 News

EURUSD made a new low last week. The pair fell to as low as 1.0963 on Friday adding to the downtrend it has been trading in since February 2018. The last time the European currency traded this low against the greenback was in May 2017. The last few months have been characterized by new lows,…

Read More »

Trump Didn’t Drag USDJPY Down. Elliott Wave Did

USDJPY plunged sharply last week after President Trump’s latest China tariff threats. The pair reached a high of 109.32 on Wednesday, July 31st, but finished the week below 106.60 on Friday. However, just because something happens after something else, it doesn’t mean there is causation between the two. In USDJPY’s case, the stage was set…

Read More »

More analyses