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Negative Social Mood, Pegida’s Best Friend

“Fears are growing in Germany of a far-Right resurgence stoked by the refugee crisis, after nearly 20,000 took to the streets of Dresden in the biggest rally by the Pegida anti-immigrant movement for months.” – The Telegraph
One of the speakers at the rally actually expressed regret that “the concentration camps are out of action”. Apparently, tension is rising in Germany, after Chancellor Angela Merkel stated the country is going to welcome 800 000 refugees.
pegida-demonstration-dresden
According to Sigmar Gabriel, the German vice-Chancellor, Pegida is using the “battle rhetoric” of the early Nazi party. What is more disturbing, is the information that neo-Nazi group members are infiltrating refugee shelters in Germany, which undoubtedly puts migrants in great danger.
The chain of events could be easily explained in common sense. Increased migrant presence gives far-right extremists the opportunity to rise. But let’s try to explain what is happening from a little different point of view.

Recommended reading: Hitler’s Popularity Is Rising. Why?

The science of Socionomics is a science about social mood, the pulse of the society. It suggests that positive social mood causes positive social events such as peace rallies, for example. While negative social mood leads to negative social events, such as anti-immigrant protests. According to Socionomics, big negative social events rarely occur, during times of positive social mood and vice versa. In order for a large enough negative social event to take place, it has to coincide with a period of negative social mood. Could we predict these periods? Yes, we can. In fact, we do not even need to predict them. All we really have to do is to see them. Just like the heartbeat is graphically visible on a cardiograph, social mood is visible on price charts. Rising prices are the result of positive social mood. Sell-offs, on the other hand, are caused by the negative part of the mood cycle. Now, let’s take a look at a chart of the German stock market index DAX and see if we could find out the real reason why many German people have been so easily attracted to Pegida and neo-Nazi movements recently.
dax pegida
The German DAX fell by more than 3090 points in less than six months, which means that social mood has been declining sharply as well. This explains why so many people are so susceptible to the negative manifestations of social mood in Germany. Pay attention to the fact, that the decline in DAX began in April 2015, while Pegida’s protest was held in October, after the index bottomed at 9 304. Once again, it turns out that news and events follow the market. This leads us to the socionomic conclusion that, if we observe what the market does, we could be able to predict the periods, when the likelihood of negative social events occurrence is increased. This, in turn, allows us to prepare for the consequences. And that is the main part.



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