The first time we wrote about real estate investment trust Mid-America Apartment Communities was just a few days before the end of 2022. With the stock at $156 a share, we thought that a short-term rally made sense, before the next big selloff can begin. That prediction had nothing to do with MAA’s fundamentals, however. A quick glance at the company’s financial statements shows that its business is boringly predictable, which is a good thing, especially for a REIT. Instead, it was the Elliott Wave chart below, which put us ahead of things.
It revealed a textbook five-wave decline between $232 and $141. According to the theory, a three-wave correction was supposed to follow, before the downtrend could resume. The most common type of corrective pattern is the simple zigzag. Its wave (c) was still missing then, hence our short-term bullish expectations. After that, however, we thought that the bears were likely to return with a vengeance.
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By mid-November, 2023, Mid-America Apartment Communities stock was down to $123 a share after an initial rise to $176 in wave (c) of B. The big A-B-C zigzag correction from the top at $232 seemed on the verge of completion. So instead of encouraging investors to join the bears there, we started preparing them for the bullish reversal ahead.
Fast-forward to today, the stock is up by roughly a third to $162 a share. That being said, the first thing to notice is that the impulse pattern in wave C never materialized. Instead, the decline from $176 to under $116 had been limited to just a three-wave structure. This means that the impulsive rally we saw in 2024 and early-2025 is not the beginning of a new uptrend. Instead, it stands for wave (c) of a running flat correction in wave B, which might have just ended at $173 and change.
If this count is correct, a complete Elliott Wave cycle is finally in place and another notable selloff can be expected in wave C. Downside targets near $100 a share or lower make sense in the months ahead, before the bear market in Mid-America Apartment Communities is finally over.
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