close icon

HollyFrontier Concluding a Bearish Elliott Wave Cycle

HollyFrontier Corp. is an independent petroleum refiner with a market cap of roughly $8.8 billion. The stock reached an all-time high of $83.28 a share in June 2018. By late-May 2019, it was barely able to hold above $37, losing nearly 55% in just one year.

However, HFC recovered significantly in the last four months. The stock closed at $53.34 yesterday, up by over 41% since the beginning of June. Is this the beginning of a larger uptrend or just a corrective rally within the larger selloff? Let’s examine the chart below from an Elliott Wave perspective and see what we’ll find.

Bulls should worry about this Elliott Wave pattern in HollyFrontier stock

The daily chart of HollyFrontier reveals that the decline from over $83 to under $38 formed a five-wave impulse pattern. It is labeled 1-2-3-4-5 and shows several Fibonacci relationships between the waves. Wave 2 retraced 61.8% of wave 1, wave 3 is 1.618 times longer than wave 1 and wave 4 retraced 38.2% of wave 3.

A Double Resistance Awaits HollyFrontier Stock near $60

The theory states that a three-wave correction in the other direction follows every impulse before the trend resumes. That is exactly what we believe the recovery from $37.73 represents – a simple A-B-C zigzag retracement. While the impulse in wave (A) unfolded within a trend channel, wave (B) seems to be developing in a corrective channel.

This means HollyFrontier bulls are about to face a double resistance near $58 a share in wave C of (B). It is formed by the termination area of wave 4 of (A) and the upper line of the corrective channel. If this analysis is correct, we can expect more weakness in wave (C) once wave C of (B) completes the 5-3 wave cycle.

A bearish reversal can be expected between $55 and $60 a share. Then, wave (C) should be able to drag HollyFrontier to at least $30 a share. In other words, despite being down 36% since June 2018, HFC can still lose half its market value. Given how its results suffered in 2008 and 2009, this is hardly a company investors would like to own with another recession on the horizon.

Did you like this analysis? Similar Elliott Wave setups occur in the Forex, crypto and commodity markets, as well. Our Elliott Wave Video Course can teach you how to uncover them yourself!



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

Ubiquiti Can Dive in a 50% Elliott Wave Correction

Headquartered in New York, Ubiquiti Inc. is a communication equipment manufacturer with a market cap of ~$13 billion. The stock is up 85% since its late-August low and is now trading in the vicinity of $200 a share. Understandably, such sharp and fast rallies easily attract people’s attention. Extrapolation of the past into the future…

Read More »

Disney Stock Forming a Major Elliott Wave Top

The last time we wrote about Disney stock was on April 17th. The company had just announced its own streaming service, sending the price sharply higher to over $130 a share. The interesting part was not the surge itself, but the fact that the Elliott Wave principle managed to prepare us for it a year…

Read More »

Bristol-Myers Stock Pattern Triggers a 37% Surge

Bristol-Myers Squibb and Celgene are expected to merge into a single company before the end of the year. The deal will create the fifth largest pharmaceutical company in the world with sales of approximately $42 billion in 2019. Bristol-Myers fell sharply after the deal was announced in early-January. In late-April, the stock was still in…

Read More »

Home Capital: Third Wave Lifts Stock 140% in 2019

Home Capital Group is up 17.4% in Toronto today following the company’s third quarter financial report. The mortgage lender beat analysts’ earnings expectations and delivered improvements in other areas, too. In total, HCG is up ~140% in 2019. But things didn’t look so rosy at the beginning of the year. The stock was hovering in…

Read More »

Walgreens: Did the Market Foresee that KKR Offer?

Anyone who’s been in Elliott Wave analysis long enough has noticed how often some external factor “makes the price move” in the direction the analysis had identified much earlier. We’ve seen it happening in crypto, we’ve seen in happening in stock indices. Now, it happened with Walgreens stock. Walgreens jumped on November 5th after CNBC…

Read More »

SERV Stock Gave a Warning Before Crashing 40%

The last three weeks have been tough on ServiceMaster shareholders. SERV stock was hovering around $56 a share as October went into its final third. But when the company announced its preliminary Q3 results on October 22nd, all hell broke loose. Apparently, Wall Street didn’t like what it saw, which resulted in a swift and…

Read More »

Expedia Disappointed. Elliott Wave Analysis Did Not

Expedia stock is down 25% today after the company’s Q3 results missed expectations. GAAP EPS fell 57 cents short of analysts’ estimates. The revenue figure was anticipated to be $10 million higher than reported, as well. On top of that, Expedia cut its full-year guidance which annoyed Wall Street even more. That is the official…

Read More »

More analyses