close icon

GBPJPY Bears Remove a Major Hurdle

It has been less than 20 days since our last update on GBPJPY. On July 20th we shared our view that the pair is “looking into the hard Brexit abyss” and while the pair was trading around 146.20, we concluded that much lower levels should be expected. Of course, the bearish outlook was not based on Mark Carney‘s statements or the rising probability of a hard Brexit. Instead, we went with the chart below and its Elliott Wave implications.
gbpjpy elliott wave chart
The 4-hour chart of GBPJPY revealed two textbook five-wave impulses in waves 1 and i), each followed by a three-wave recovery in waves 2 and ii), respectively. According to the theory, impulses point in the direction of the larger trend. In addition, the big picture outlook was not giving the bulls a lot of reasons for optimism, as well. The takeaway was that as long as GBPJPY traded below the high of wave ii) at 149.31, the bears were going to remain in charge. The lower line of the corrective channel wrapped around wave ii) looked like their first major obstacle on the way down. “No problem” they said.
GBPJPY Forex pair Elliott wave forecast
GBPJPY breached the lower line of the channel on August 6th and continued to the south. As of this writing, the pair is approaching 143.20 – a level not seen in almost a year. The recent developments allow traders to move the invalidation level from 149.31 down to 147.15 and maintain the negative outlook. Given that third waves are usually the largest and fastest part of the Elliott Wave cycle, we believe the worst is yet to come and 2018 is going to be a very bad year for GBPJPY longs. 120.00 is there for the taking in the long-term.

Did you like this analysis? Learn to do it yourself with our eBook Elliott Wave guide!



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

Elliott Wave Setup Helps EURUSD Add 325 Pips

EURUSD has been under pressure for over two years now. The pair reached 1.2556 in February 2018, but has been making lower lows and lower highs ever since. Yet, the past couple of weeks painted a different picture. Between May 18th and May 29th, the euro surged 325 pips against the U.S. dollar. In those…

Read More »

EURGBP Pattern Signals Bullish Reversal Ahead

EURGBP has been in free fall since March 19th, when it rose to 0.9500. A month and a half later now, the pair is hovering below 0.8730, down 8% from the peak. Is the downtrend going to continue or should we expect a change of direction? That is the question we hope to answer in…

Read More »

GBPUSD Aiming at 1.30, but May Tumble to 1.21 First

Not long ago, we shared our long-term view of GBPUSD. In our opinion, the down-phase of the pair’s cycle, which is in its 13th year now, is almost over. One last dip to 1.1000 is likely to be followed by a major bearish reversal and the start of the next up-phase. Now, we are going…

Read More »

British Pound ‘s 13-Year Downtrend Almost Over

The thirteen-year period between 2007 and 2020 started with the biggest crisis since the Great Depression and is about to end with the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. Between the two, the longest economic expansion on record took place. And while stock markets around the world reflected that recovery, some currencies have been in…

Read More »

Ahead of the Move: EURUSD Adds 500 Pips in a Week

At the start of last week EURUSD was trading below 1.0700. The pair had fallen from as high as 1.1496 in just two weeks as coronavirus cases in Western Europe kept climbing disturbingly fast. And while fundamental traders had every reason to expect more weakness, the charts were sending a different message. The Elliott Wave…

Read More »

GBPUSD Completes Pattern, Uptrend to Resume

When we last wrote about GBPUSD Britain was still an EU member. Today, that is no longer the case as the country left the Union on January 31st. On the other hand, the pair is roughly unchanged, currently hovering around 1.2900. In fact, GBPUSD has been tracking a classic Elliott Wave pattern. Take a look…

Read More »

GBPUSD To Resume Uptrend Once Correction Ends

The Brexit saga continues as Boris Johnson’s re-election puts Britain firmly on the path of leaving the EU on January 31st 2020. And while the results of the June 2016 referendum caused a crash to 1.1650 by October 2016, GBPUSD is trading near 1.3100 today. The chart below reveals the structure of the recent recovery…

Read More »

More analyses