close icon

EURUSD Starts 2018 On a Tear. Surprised?

2017 has been a great year for EURUSD bulls. During the last twelve months, the pair climbed from as low as 1.0340 to almost 1.2100 and managed to finish the year above the 1.20 mark for the first time since 2014. It was not a sure shot, though, especially during the mid-December dip to below 1.1720, which forced a number of bulls out of their long positions.

But uncertainty is every trader’s inescapable companion and even when a trading setup cannot be found, it is always better to know what to expect. The following Elliott Wave count first emerged as an alternative scenario (the primary one was also bullish) in the EURUSD analysis we sent to subscribers before the market opened on December 4th, 2017.
eurusd elliott wave analysis december 4
As visible, we assumed EURUSD could decline to the support area near 1.1700, before going up again. The reason for this was the fact that the decline from 1.2092 to 1.1554 was a (w)-(x)-(y) double zig-zag correction in wave 4. According to the theory, once a correction is over, the larger trend resumes. On the other hand, the recovery from 1.1554 to 1.1896 was a also a three-wave sequence. The most probable explanation was that wave 5 was developing as an ending diagonal. So, it made sense to prepare for more weakness in wave (ii), followed by another rally in wave (iii) of 5, as long as 1.1554 remained intact. Two weeks later, by December 18th, this count was no longer an alternative one.

eurusd elliott wave analysis december 18

EURUSD touched 1.1717 on December 12th and jumped sharply up, which confirmed the bullish idea and allowed us to move the invalidation level from 1.1554 up to 1.1717, providing a trading setup with an excellent risk/reward ratio. Already in 2018, here is how the situation has been developing during the last two weeks.

eurusd elliott wave analysis january 1st

The Euro started climbing right away and 1.1717 was never in danger, so the 30-pip risk did not materialize. The 200+ pip profit potential, on the other hand, did, as EURUSD exceeded the 1.2000 mark on the last trading day of 2017. It is hard to tell what would 2018 bring, but with the Elliott Wave principle on their side, traders are one step ahead of the pack.

Happy New Year !



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

GBPJPY Recovery Takes Shape of an Impulse Pattern

Less than two years ago, during the coronavirus market panic, GBPJPY fell to a multi-year low of 124.04. The last time the pair traded at such levels was in August, 2012, when the world was still recovering from the Financial Crisis. The Covid-19 selloff didn’t last that long though. After plunging 10.9% in March 2020…

Read More »

USDCAD Rises in Predictable Elliott Wave Manner

USDCAD rose significantly this past week, climbing from 1.2512 at the open to as high as 1.2949 Friday. The surge can be attributed to the slide in crude oil prices. Oil and USDCAD are known to have an inverse correlation due to the heavy reliance of the Canada’s economy on the commodity. And while the…

Read More »

Two Months Ahead of the 400-Pip Slide in EURUSD

Economic and fiscal steps taken to help the global economy rebound from the COVID-19 crisis are still in effect in both U.S. and EU. The amount of stimulus by the Fed far eclipsed the measures taken by the ECB. Direct unemployment payments are even creating a labor shortage. Many people prefer to rely on government…

Read More »

Elliott Wave Support Can Send USDZAR 15% Higher

It’s been a bad year for USDZAR bulls. The pair has been declining ever since it reached a high of 19.34 in early-April 2020. As of this writing, it is barely holding above 14.30, down 26% in a little over twelve months. Does this mean now is a good time to join the bears? We…

Read More »

Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Disappointing Start to 2021

Overall, 2020 was a good year for EURUSD bulls. Despite the March crash during the coronavirus-related volatility, the pair ended the year up almost 9%. With more stimulus already in the pipeline at the start of 2021, it made sense to expect further devaluation of the dollar against the Euro. Alas, common sense doesn’t always…

Read More »

USDJPY Gains 450 Pips and Counting in Two Months

2020 wasn’t a good year for USDJPY bulls. Starting from 108.63 in January, the pair closed at 103.32 on December 31st, down 4.9% in twelve months. But what the dollar lost against the yen in the entire 2020 it is now close to recouping in less than three months. USDJPY is approaching 108.50 as of…

Read More »

USDTRY Drop Accelerates as Elliott Wave Predicted

The Turkish Lira hit its highest level against the U.S. dollar in six months. The country economic and legal reforms announced last year coupled with tighter monetary policy appear to be giving the desired effect. USDTRY is down 19.3% from its November 2020 high after being in an uptrend since mid-2008. Most analyst, however, are…

Read More »

More analyses