close icon

EURUSD Might Recover, But How High?

On September 20th, we published “EURUSD Next Stop: Parity”, saying that “EURUSD might plunge to a new low, below 1.0460″. It has been more than a month, so let’s refresh your memory by taking a look at the old forecast first. It is given on the chart below.
eurusd 1h 20.9.15
So, there was a nice five-wave impulse to the south, followed by a three-wave recovery. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, another decline had to be expected. Having the bigger picture in mind, we thought parity is a good long term target. The following chart shows what happened next.
eurusd 29.10.15 count 1
Yes, we know it is not there yet. After touching the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the second time, EURUSD headed straight down, just as expected. Yesterday, on October 28th, the pair fell to 1.0896. Right now, it seems like reaching parity is just a matter of time. As the above-shown chart demonstrates, we might see a temporary recovery up to 1.1100 soon, but eventually, the bears should prevail.
However, every trader’s job is to constantly look for alternative scenarios, where his idea would fail, even if everything is going just fine at the moment. The alternative count for EURUSD is visible below.
eurusd 29.10.15 count 2
Here, we assume that the whole decline from 1.1713 to 1.0896 is just an (A)-(B)-(C) zig-zag correction. If so, the recovery we are expecting could turn out to be much bigger. For now, we would stick to the primary count and stay long-term bearish, since there is no indication it is going to fail yet. However, we will keep in mind the alternative outlook. In case 1.1100 is significantly broken in the weeks ahead, we might have to switch to it. It is up to the Market to decide.

Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

GBPJPY Recovery Takes Shape of an Impulse Pattern

Less than two years ago, during the coronavirus market panic, GBPJPY fell to a multi-year low of 124.04. The last time the pair traded at such levels was in August, 2012, when the world was still recovering from the Financial Crisis. The Covid-19 selloff didn’t last that long though. After plunging 10.9% in March 2020…

Read More »

USDCAD Rises in Predictable Elliott Wave Manner

USDCAD rose significantly this past week, climbing from 1.2512 at the open to as high as 1.2949 Friday. The surge can be attributed to the slide in crude oil prices. Oil and USDCAD are known to have an inverse correlation due to the heavy reliance of the Canada’s economy on the commodity. And while the…

Read More »

Two Months Ahead of the 400-Pip Slide in EURUSD

Economic and fiscal steps taken to help the global economy rebound from the COVID-19 crisis are still in effect in both U.S. and EU. The amount of stimulus by the Fed far eclipsed the measures taken by the ECB. Direct unemployment payments are even creating a labor shortage. Many people prefer to rely on government…

Read More »

Elliott Wave Support Can Send USDZAR 15% Higher

It’s been a bad year for USDZAR bulls. The pair has been declining ever since it reached a high of 19.34 in early-April 2020. As of this writing, it is barely holding above 14.30, down 26% in a little over twelve months. Does this mean now is a good time to join the bears? We…

Read More »

Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Disappointing Start to 2021

Overall, 2020 was a good year for EURUSD bulls. Despite the March crash during the coronavirus-related volatility, the pair ended the year up almost 9%. With more stimulus already in the pipeline at the start of 2021, it made sense to expect further devaluation of the dollar against the Euro. Alas, common sense doesn’t always…

Read More »

USDJPY Gains 450 Pips and Counting in Two Months

2020 wasn’t a good year for USDJPY bulls. Starting from 108.63 in January, the pair closed at 103.32 on December 31st, down 4.9% in twelve months. But what the dollar lost against the yen in the entire 2020 it is now close to recouping in less than three months. USDJPY is approaching 108.50 as of…

Read More »

USDTRY Drop Accelerates as Elliott Wave Predicted

The Turkish Lira hit its highest level against the U.S. dollar in six months. The country economic and legal reforms announced last year coupled with tighter monetary policy appear to be giving the desired effect. USDTRY is down 19.3% from its November 2020 high after being in an uptrend since mid-2008. Most analyst, however, are…

Read More »

More analyses