close icon

EURUSD, it is time.

In this analysis of EURUSD we will look at the price action from two angles – conventional technical analysis and then the Elliott Wave Principle. As you will see, the two methods confirm each other, giving us a one-sided view for the Euro versus the US dollar. First we will examine the conventional point of view, where we need only two trend-lines, in order to form an opinion.

eurusd line

As you can see, we have drawn a rising trend-line, from which price had bounced up three times during the past 10 months, which makes it a major trend-line and important dynamic support. But this major support has been broken yesterday, May 9th 2014. This is the first bearish sign for EURUSD. The second one is the declining slope, pointing out that the trend is exhausted. So, according to the conventional technical analysis, this pair may already be in bear’s paws. Now, if we want to be more precise about out forecast, we might want see how an Elliottician would interpret the situation. Below you will see the same chart, labeled.

eurusd elliott

Looking through Elliott’s eye, we see that the whole price action is corrective. Corrections are movements against the larger trend, which means that sooner or later, the whole rise from 1.2035 should be retraced, because the larger trend is down. Our bearish expectations are further supported by an ending diagonal in wave C of (Y), which has been broken to the downside. Considering our weekly chart analysis, made on April 16th 2014, we think that Thursday’s top of 1.3994 is likely to be the last one for the next two or three years for EURUSD.



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

GBPJPY Bears Aiming at 120, Before Giving Up

Whether it is because of Brexit or not, GBPJPY has been trading below 160.00 ever since the referendum in June 2016. The pair has been locked in a wide range between 156 and 124 for four years now. Last week, it closed the session at 134.66, down from 138.84 at the open. In order to…

Read More »

Elliott Wave Setup Helps EURUSD Add 325 Pips

EURUSD has been under pressure for over two years now. The pair reached 1.2556 in February 2018, but has been making lower lows and lower highs ever since. Yet, the past couple of weeks painted a different picture. Between May 18th and May 29th, the euro surged 325 pips against the U.S. dollar. In those…

Read More »

EURGBP Pattern Signals Bullish Reversal Ahead

EURGBP has been in free fall since March 19th, when it rose to 0.9500. A month and a half later now, the pair is hovering below 0.8730, down 8% from the peak. Is the downtrend going to continue or should we expect a change of direction? That is the question we hope to answer in…

Read More »

GBPUSD Aiming at 1.30, but May Tumble to 1.21 First

Not long ago, we shared our long-term view of GBPUSD. In our opinion, the down-phase of the pair’s cycle, which is in its 13th year now, is almost over. One last dip to 1.1000 is likely to be followed by a major bearish reversal and the start of the next up-phase. Now, we are going…

Read More »

British Pound ‘s 13-Year Downtrend Almost Over

The thirteen-year period between 2007 and 2020 started with the biggest crisis since the Great Depression and is about to end with the biggest crisis since the Great Depression. Between the two, the longest economic expansion on record took place. And while stock markets around the world reflected that recovery, some currencies have been in…

Read More »

Ahead of the Move: EURUSD Adds 500 Pips in a Week

At the start of last week EURUSD was trading below 1.0700. The pair had fallen from as high as 1.1496 in just two weeks as coronavirus cases in Western Europe kept climbing disturbingly fast. And while fundamental traders had every reason to expect more weakness, the charts were sending a different message. The Elliott Wave…

Read More »

GBPUSD Completes Pattern, Uptrend to Resume

When we last wrote about GBPUSD Britain was still an EU member. Today, that is no longer the case as the country left the Union on January 31st. On the other hand, the pair is roughly unchanged, currently hovering around 1.2900. In fact, GBPUSD has been tracking a classic Elliott Wave pattern. Take a look…

Read More »

More analyses