close icon

EURCAD: Is The End Nigh For The Bears?

Less than a month ago, on September 16th, we published “The EURCAD Saga Continues”, saying that “the exchange rate is likely to plunge below the 1.46 mark again.” We thought so, because of what we saw on the hourly chart of EURCAD. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, a five-wave impulse to the south, followed by a three-wave recovery means we should expect more weakness ahead. All of this was clearly visible on the chart below.
eurcad 16.9.15
The anticipated sell-off did not happen immediately. EURCAD decided to extend the correction in time. Instead of a simple A-B-C zig-zag, as the one shown above, it evolved into a W-X-Y double zig-zag. However, the pair did not go anywhere near the invalidation level at 1.5560, so there was no reason to worry. Instead, on September 29th, EURCAD rose to 1.5157, where the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance did what it was supposed to, and gave the start of the decline we have been waiting for. Yesterday, on October 7th, EURCAD fell as low as 1.4548. Another great example of how the Wave principle could lead to positive results, if one is patient and disciplined enough to follow its rules.
From now on, there are two most probable scenarios for EURCAD. The first one is given on the chart below.
eurcad 8.10.15 count 1
If this is the correct count, the whole development between the top of 1.5560 and the bottom at 1.4548 is an (A)-(B)-(C) correction. This would mean that EURCAD should start rising again, because once a correction is over, the larger trend resumes. The alternate count is a little more complicated. Take a look at it on the next chart.
eurcad 8.10.15 count 2
The above-shown wave count suggests, wave (3/C) to the south is still in progress. If this assumption is the right one, EURCAD still has a lot of falling to do. This bearish idea would be confirmed, if the rate breaks below 1.4548. The invalidation level lies at 1.5157. Right now, both scenarios are equally probable, so do not pick your favorite. Just observe the confirmation and invalidation levels and be ready to act accordingly.



Stay informed with our newsletter

Latest Elliott Wave analysis on different topics delivered to you weekly.

Privacy policy
You may also like:

GBPJPY Recovery Takes Shape of an Impulse Pattern

Less than two years ago, during the coronavirus market panic, GBPJPY fell to a multi-year low of 124.04. The last time the pair traded at such levels was in August, 2012, when the world was still recovering from the Financial Crisis. The Covid-19 selloff didn’t last that long though. After plunging 10.9% in March 2020…

Read More »

USDCAD Rises in Predictable Elliott Wave Manner

USDCAD rose significantly this past week, climbing from 1.2512 at the open to as high as 1.2949 Friday. The surge can be attributed to the slide in crude oil prices. Oil and USDCAD are known to have an inverse correlation due to the heavy reliance of the Canada’s economy on the commodity. And while the…

Read More »

Two Months Ahead of the 400-Pip Slide in EURUSD

Economic and fiscal steps taken to help the global economy rebound from the COVID-19 crisis are still in effect in both U.S. and EU. The amount of stimulus by the Fed far eclipsed the measures taken by the ECB. Direct unemployment payments are even creating a labor shortage. Many people prefer to rely on government…

Read More »

Elliott Wave Support Can Send USDZAR 15% Higher

It’s been a bad year for USDZAR bulls. The pair has been declining ever since it reached a high of 19.34 in early-April 2020. As of this writing, it is barely holding above 14.30, down 26% in a little over twelve months. Does this mean now is a good time to join the bears? We…

Read More »

Ahead of EURUSD ‘s Disappointing Start to 2021

Overall, 2020 was a good year for EURUSD bulls. Despite the March crash during the coronavirus-related volatility, the pair ended the year up almost 9%. With more stimulus already in the pipeline at the start of 2021, it made sense to expect further devaluation of the dollar against the Euro. Alas, common sense doesn’t always…

Read More »

USDJPY Gains 450 Pips and Counting in Two Months

2020 wasn’t a good year for USDJPY bulls. Starting from 108.63 in January, the pair closed at 103.32 on December 31st, down 4.9% in twelve months. But what the dollar lost against the yen in the entire 2020 it is now close to recouping in less than three months. USDJPY is approaching 108.50 as of…

Read More »

USDTRY Drop Accelerates as Elliott Wave Predicted

The Turkish Lira hit its highest level against the U.S. dollar in six months. The country economic and legal reforms announced last year coupled with tighter monetary policy appear to be giving the desired effect. USDTRY is down 19.3% from its November 2020 high after being in an uptrend since mid-2008. Most analyst, however, are…

Read More »

More analyses