The time between May 12th and May 23rd is a period ETHUSD bulls would want to forget. The second largest cryptocurrency fell from an all-time high of $4380 to as low as $1730. While some might consider crypto to be gold 2.0, crashes like that one reveal that the space is still a wild west of volatility and little else.
What is even more interesting to us is the Elliott Wave structure of that 60% plunge. A three-wave move would indicate the larger uptrend is still in progress. A five-wave impulse would mean we should expect more weakness going forward. Let’s take a look.
Unfortunately for the bulls, the selloff to $1730 looks more like an impulse pattern, not a correction. It is labeled 1-2-3-4-5, where wave 2 is an expanding flat while wave 4 is a zigzag. The recovery from the bottom of wave 5 must then be another A-B-C zigzag retracement.
If this count is correct, ETHUSD is on the verge of completing a bearish 5-3 wave cycle. According to the theory, once wave C is over, we can expect the trend to resume in the direction of the impulsive sequence. The odds against the bulls are greater than those in their favor. Initial targets below the bottom of wave 5 make sense when the bears return. From the current price of ~$2780, this translates into another drop of at least 35%. Likely more.
What will BTCUSD bring next week? That is the subject of discussion in our next Elliott Wave PRO analysis due out late Sunday!