Down 26% YTD, Greggs Stock Can Lose Another 30%

Bearish   

Owning most of its stores, manufacturing facilities and transporting the products by itself, Greggs is a vertically integrated leading bakery retailer in the UK. Due to its high popularity with the low- and middle-income customers, a friend of ours with boots on the ground jokingly said that the country would fall apart without Greggs.

This is precisely what has been happening to the stock price, however. It is only January, but Greggs’ valuation is already down 26% year-to-date. The market had become accustomed to the company’s high-double-digit revenue growth rates and apparently didn’t like to hear that Q4 total sales were up just 7.7%.

And while the company has more cash that debt on its balance sheet and its growth runway is far from over, the Elliott Wave chart below suggests that the bears are not done with Greggs yet.

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Greggs stock Elliott Wave analysis

It shows that this month’s crash fits in the position of wave (c) within a three-wave correction following a complete five-wave impulse to the upside spanning more than two decades. Greggs’ journey as a public company began in the 1990s and culminated in late-2021, when the stock climbed to an all-time high of GBp 3443.

That uptrend produced a five-wave impulse pattern, which we’ve labeled (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Two lower degrees of the trend are visible within wave (3) as both its own sub-waves and the sub-waves of its fifth wave can be recognized. And just as wave (4) erased almost all of the extended wave 5 of (3), we can expect the current correction to do something similar to wave (5).

In other words, it makes sense to expect more weakness in wave (c) towards the GBp 1400-1300 support area, before the bulls can return. From the current price of roughly GBp 2050, that’ll be another 30%-35% to the downside. Once there, we think Greggs would be a real bargain and a high-quality long-term investment. We remain on the sidelines until then.

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