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DAX In a High-Risk-Low-Return Zone

Nearly three months ago, on July 27th, the German DAX was hovering near 12 300, down from an all-time high of 12 951 reached in June. At the time, uncertainty was mounting. The European Union’s inability to find an acceptable solution to the refugee crisis was becoming obvious and the rising number of terrorist attacks meant the far-right had a real chance of scoring a strong result at the German elections in September.

Despite all the challenges Europe as a whole and Germany in particular were facing, the Elliott Wave Principle suggested the German benchmark index should eventually climb to a new all-time high. The chart below, published in “DAX Bulls Not Ready to Give Up” in late-July, shows that it is always better to turn off the TV and listen to the market instead.

dax elliott wave analysis july 27

Despite all the uncertainty, there was no reason to turn bearish at the end of July, because what was supposed to be an impulsive advance from the bottom of wave IV at 8699 was still missing a couple of fifth waves to the north. For starters, wave 5 of (3) was expected to lift the German DAX above the 13 000 mark.

Today is October 16th, the refugee crisis is still unsolved, Merkel won a fourth term as a chancellor of Germany, and the far-right AfD became the first nationalist party in over six decades to enter the Bundestag, adding another one to the long list of things the EU has to worry about. Nevertheless, the DAX 30 index rose to 13 037 last week.

dax index elliott wave analysis

Which means it is time to take a contrarian approach once again, because wave (3) could already be seen as a complete five-wave pattern, indicating a notable pullback in wave (4) should soon begin. The support of wave 4 of (3) near 12 200 is the area the bears would naturally aim at. Then, wave (5) of V should give the bulls one last chance to lift the DAX to a new all-time high, before the whole uptrend since March 2009 ends.

Assuming that wave (5) would not exceed the top of wave (3) by a lot, it is fair to say that the German DAX has entered a high-risk-low-return area. Not the place to be, if you care about your money.

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